The evolution of the seven swing states in the 21st century

Since George W. Bush defeated Al Gore at the polls in 2000, seven states have been pivotal in every election. This group, known as the swing states, is made up of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, which are set to be decisive once again this November. And, in all of them, the polls predict a maximum equality between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Neither the Democratic nor Republican Party has managed to string together six consecutive victories in any of these seven states since the 2000 election. Some of them seemed to be dyed blue for many years and others, red, but each flipped at one point or another.

In addition, there has been the occasional time when a majority of voters in one of those states opted for the candidate who ultimately lost. For example, in the 2000 and 2004 elections, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania voted for Gore and John Kerry. Both Democrats lost to Bush.

Another example was in 2020 in North Carolina, a state in which Trump won the most votes. The Republican candidate ended up losing in the general election to Joe Biden.

Wisconsin

Since 2000, Democratic candidates have always reaped the majority of votes, except in 2016. Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes, is governed by the Democratic Party (Tony Evers). Each party has one U.S. senator (Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Ron Johnson).

Gore succeeded in winning the vote in this state in 2000, as well as Kerry in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. However, the Republicans, with Trump as candidate, managed to turn it around and won in 2016. In the last election, Biden won the state back for the Democrats.

According to the consulting firm Real Clear Politics (RCP), if the election were held right now, Harris would beat Trump in Wisconsin by a slight 0.3-point lead.

Michigan

Michigan has seen the same results as Wisconsin as of late. In the state, which has 15 electoral votes, the Democratic candidates won in the 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2020 elections. In 2016, voters opted for Trump. Currently at the helm of the state is the Democratic Party, with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Both senators are also Harris' party colleagues, Gary Peters and Debbie Stabenow.

In both the 2000 and 2004 elections in The Wolverine State, Bush lost to Gore and Kerry, respectively. In 2008 and 2012, the Democrats did not concede, and Obama defeated the Republicans. But, four years later, Trump broke the trend by defeating Hillary Clinton. In the last election, Biden again painted the state blue.

The polls currently predict that Trump will defeat Harris in Michigan in November. The Republican candidate holds a 1-point lead over the Democrat, according to RCP.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is yet another state with the same results as Wisconsin and Michigan. Biden's home state is the most important of the swing states because it grants the largest number of electoral votes: 19. Governed by the Democratic Party (Josh Shapiro), its two senators are also Democrats (Bob Casey, Jr. and John Fetterman).

The Democrats defeated the Republicans in the 2000, 2004, 2008, 2008, 2012 and 2020 elections. Trump won the vote in 2016.

RCP concedes victory to Trump in Pennsylvania in November, with a mere 0.3-point margin over Harris.

Nevada

There are six electoral votes at stake in Nevada. Bush managed to win the state in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. However, Democrats claimed victory in the next four. It is governed by the Republican Party (Joe Lombardo) and its two senators are Democrats, Catherine Cortez Masto and Jacky Rosen.

In 2008, the Democrats' winning streak began in Nevada. First, Obama defeated John McCain and Mitt Romney; then it was Clinton who defeated Trump. Finally, Biden left the current Republican candidate without a victory.

For now, it looks like Trump will once again paint Nevada red. According to RCP, the Republican challenger is projected to beat Harris by a 0.2-point margin.

Arizona

The Republican Party dominated Arizona, which has 11 electoral votes, from the 2000 election until 2016, as happened in Georgia. In the last election, however, the Democratic Party turned the state blue. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, governs in the state. One of the senators is a Democrat, Mark Kelly; the other, Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat and now independent.

Biden's victory in 2020 is the lone victory achieved by the Democratic Party in Arizona since 2000. In the previous five, the desert was an oasis for Republican hopefuls Bush, McCain, Romney and Trump.

Everything points to Arizona turning red again for the Republican Party in 2024. According to RCP, Trump is projected to edge Harris by 1.1 points.

North Carolina

North Carolina is another state where Republicans have mostly dominated since 2000. The exception here was the 2008 election. The state, which has 16 electoral votes, is governed by Democrat Roy Cooper. Its two senators, Thom Tillis and Ted Budd, are Republicans.

Obama took home the only victory for the Democrats since 2000 in North Carolina in 2008, when he beat McCain. Bush (twice), Romney and Trump all won for the Republicans.

It looks like it will once again be the Republican candidate who will triumph in November in North Carolina. According to RCP, Trump will prevail over Harris with a 0.5-point margin.

Georgia

As happened in Arizona, from 2000 to 2016, the Republican Party was unchallenged in a presidential election in Georgia, a state that dishes out 16 electoral votes. Governed by Brian Kemp, a Republican, its two senators are Democrats: Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock.

Including Bush's win in Georgia in 2000, the Republican Party strung together five consecutive victories. However, Biden managed to break that streak by defeating Trump in 2020.

According to RCP, Republicans are again forecast to take those 16 electoral votes, as, if the election were held today, Trump would finish ahead of Harris by 0.5 points.