Five keys to the hispanic vote for the presidential election

The presidential elections are approaching and candidates are looking to win the Hispanic vote, which will contribute greatly to an electoral triumph. Between 2016 and 2024, the number of Hispanics eligible to vote grew from 27 million to approximately 36 million.

Hispanics are no longer staunch supporters of the Democratic Party

Historically, Hispanics were more likely to support the Democratic Party. However, this has been changing in recent years. Despite Joe Biden winning the Latino vote in the last election, a study conducted by Pew Research in July revealed that equal percentages of registered Hispanic voters said they planned to vote for the Democratic and Republican parties.

Although several media outlets have explained that trend may have changed with Joe Biden's resignation from his candidacy and the start of Kamala Harris' election race, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s endorsement of Donald Trump may change the projections.

Kennedy Jr. had strong support among Hispanics. At least 24% of Latinos expressed their intention to vote for him when he announced his independent candidacy. Additionally, Republicans had already gained ground among the Hispanic vote.

More Republicans in recent years

The blue party's lead among Hispanic adults and adults ages 18 to 29 has declined nearly 20 points in the past three years, according to a Gallup poll that detailed that, right now in the middle of an election year, Democrats have only a modest lead among Latinos compared with the historical support this group has given them.

"These shifts in the party affiliation of key subgroups provide the demographic backstory for how Democrats went from enjoying significant leads over Republicans between 2012 and 2021, to slight deficits in 2022 and 2023," Gallup explained.

What states do Hispanic voters live in?

According to another analysis by Pew Research conducted earlier this year, most Hispanic voters live in California, which is home to a quarter of all eligible Hispanic voters. The next largest states by number of eligible Latino voters are Texas (6.5 million), Florida (3.5 million), New York (2.2 million) and Arizona (1.3 million).

Meanwhile, the report detailed that, in New Mexico, 45% of all eligible voters are Latino, the highest proportion of any state. New Mexico is also the only state in which Latinos make up a larger proportion of the total eligible voter population than any other racial or ethnic group.

The Hispanic vote, a young vote

It was also indicated that in California and Texas, Hispanics represent approximately one-third of the eligible voting population (33% and 32%, respectively).

In addition, the Hispanic vote represents a large part of the country's future. Latinos eligible to vote tend to be younger than voters in general. Only 33% of eligible Latino voters are age 50 or older, compared with 48% of all voters.