This Wednesday, May 1, former President Donald Trump dedicated his valuable day outside the court to visiting Michigan and Wisconsin—two states in one day! But it's worth it because as the outlook for the November elections becomes clearer, Biden's hope to remain in the White House lies in three "Blue Wall" states.

The latest polls clarify the possible paths to victory in the presidential elections. In recent days, two pieces of news must be greatly worrying the Biden campaign. The first is that polls show that it is becoming increasingly difficult for the president to win Arizona and Georgia, two states that helped him considerably in his 2020 victory.

But it's not just about those two states; in general, the four competitive southern states are producing polls that leave the Democrat without much hope in those places.

Biden needs Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania

As things stand, the path for Biden is becoming more apparent, leading to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. However, the second bad news for the Democratic campaign is that these states are now heavily contested. This is why former President Trump has taken up his valuable time outside the court to visit Michigan and Wisconsin in a single day instead of going to reinforce his numbers in the south. It is already clear that Biden cannot lose those three states.

In 2016, many people were surprised that Trump won all three states, tearing down the so-called "Blue Wall." Now, he seeks to achieve the feat again. If he does so, he will retain the presidency. And he doesn't even need to win all three. Depending on what happens in the southern states, by just winning one of these three states, Trump could condemn Biden to defeat.

In the last elections, Biden managed to reverse Trump's 2016 feat and won the three states, but with fairly tight margins. Biden won Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by just 1 point and won Michigan by 3 points. Trump currently has a lead of 1.4 points in Michigan, 1.9 points in Pennsylvania and 2.6 points in Wisconsin.

Of course, although the polls are not encouraging for Biden in the southern states, the Democrat has not stopped his campaign in the four competitive states: North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. His campaign has focused primarily on those four states and the three in the "Blue Wall."

Biden's poor numbers in those four states may be largely caused by the president's loss of support among Black and young voters. In North Carolina, Trump has a lead of 6.4 points; in Georgia, the Republican leads Biden by 5.9 points; in Nevada, the difference is 5.1 points; and in Arizona, 3.2 points.

President Biden could afford to lose those four states if he wins the three in the "Blue Wall", but the polls do not show an easy outlook and now Trump, despite being busy almost every day in court with a case that for many has no justification. If the president loses in these four states and Trump wins only one of the three in the "Blue Wall," Biden would lose the White House.

The Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Factor

Finally, in the analysis, we must also add an external factor that could be decisive: the presence of a third candidate. Historically, the participation of a candidate from another party has hurt Democrats. Part of Biden's victory in the last elections, in the three states, is explained by a reduction in the vote for a third candidate compared to the percentage that vote had in 2016, when Trump took Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

According to a 2020 NBC News exit poll, 5% of voters leaned toward a third party in 2016, and of those voters, more than 60% leaned toward Biden in 2020. At this time, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is already on the Michigan ballot, and his team assures that he will seek to register in all 50 states. According to polls, he has 5% of the vote in Michigan.