Zelensky and Trump's first victory

After a back-and-forth of accusations that reached a zenith with a Truth Social post where Trump called Zelensky a dictator, the two presidents have signed the famous agreement on Ukrainian natural resources this Friday in Washington.

According to the final version of the agreement, Ukraine will contribute half of the revenue generated by the exploitation of the natural resources it does not yet extract to a common investment fund mostly controlled by the U.S. that should serve to encourage investments in Ukraine.

The agreement does not include the more onerous conditions proposed in earlier drafts with the U.S. One of the conditions left out is the $500 billion figure Ukraine was to contribute to the fund under earlier versions of the document.

Ukraine has also managed to ensure that the revenue it must contribute to the fund does not include the resources it already exploits. The most profitable Ukrainian state-owned enterprises will thus be able to continue to contribute the profits they already make to the Ukrainian budget.

Kiev has failed, however, to include commitment by the U.S. to continue to offer it military support or security guarantees in the agreement.

Beyond the rhetoric, the creation of a common fund to invest in the country with proceeds from future resource extraction seems to be excellent news for Ukraine.

If the U.S. gains from the extraction of natural resources in Ukraine it will be sure to get the necessary projects underway, with a consequent benefit to the Ukrainian economy. The construction of roads from the mines to the ports and the upgrading of ports (the dividends from which will also contribute to the fund) are just some of the associated benefits that the materialization of the project will bring.

Some believe that Ukraine could derive far more benefits from not being obliged to automatically inject half of what it earns from new resource extraction, but who knows how long it would take Ukraine to implement such projects without the urgency that will now be imposed upon it by the U.S.?

Romania, a NATO and E.U. country, is still not exploiting huge gas reserves due to lack of legal certainty and other problems that scare off long-term foreign investment. Ukraine has those same problems and the direct threat of Russia, so it's hard to imagine a more effective way to boost those large investments than the deal that is to be signed today.

As Trump himself has said, the exploitation of natural resources and all associated investments by U.S. companies will fill Ukraine with American workers. Together with the profits the U.S. expects to make from its investment, there is the best possible guarantee that Washington will keep Moscow's appetite for Ukraine at bay.

In the strategy Trump lays out, the hardest thing of all seems to be convincing Russia to accept foreign troops to enforce any peace agreement that is signed. Trump is optimistic about that, and he must be trusted to be able to impose that concession on Putin.

It is also necessary that Ukraine be allowed to maintain a strong military to protect against new Russian threats in the short and medium term when the European (and Turkish) military contingent that would initially ensure compliance with the agreement has been withdrawn. This is another of the points that Trump must be able to impose on Putin.

By managing to eliminate the most unfavorable clauses of the agreement that the U.S. was practically forcing him to sign, Zelensky has earned a massive victory. The Ukrainian president is the first international leader to make Trump yield in a negotiation since he returned to the White House.

The signing of the agreement is also a triumph for Trump, who has freer hands to decide his policy on Ukraine by procuring the argument of economic self-interest. Every time someone from MAGA asks him what the U.S. gains from supporting Ukraine, Trump is going to pull out the receipts to answer him: fat profits in uranium, aluminum, lithium, oil, gas and rare earth minerals.