The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) sees signs of a slowdown in the country's economy. In the same way that the organization points out for the euro zone, the United Kingdom or Canada, the United States is approaching this slowdown in economic growth in a context of high inflation, a low level of consumer confidence and a decline in stock market indices.
For the United States, the advanced composite indicator - which signals in advance inflections of the economic cycle - fell 11 hundredths of a point in October to 99.72 points, below the 100 level that marks the long-term average, according to the OECD. This is the country's seventh consecutive monthly decline and the sharpest in the entire series.
The declines are even more evident in the euro zone (down 15 hundredths in October to 99.48 points); the United Kingdom (down 19 hundredths to 98.79 points) and Canada (down 13 hundredths to 99.35 points). On the up side, Japan stood out with a slight rise of one hundredth to 99.69 points.) Outside the OECD, signs of slowing growth were repeated in Brazil (down 20 hundredths to 102.06 points) and Russia (down 23 hundredths to 99.98 points). At the other end, China's stable growth stands out, up 8 hundredths of a point to 98.84 points.
The OECD points out that the current uncertainties due to the war in Ukraine and the covid are causing larger fluctuations than usual. Although it calls for caution in making interpretations, the fact is that the signs of a downturn are evident already.
Employment data, a key factor in forecasting a future recession
Based on these data, we must keep a close eye on employment. All historical recessions have been characterized by a drop in this area, which has not occurred so far. Later this week, the Labor Department will release national unemployment figures for June. The unemployment rate has held steady at around 3.5 percent thus far. If this figure increases, there will be too many variables alerting us to a future - and perhaps not too distant - recession in the country.
