President Joe Biden started the election year with a significant loss of votes among the Hispanic, African-American and young voters, the population groups that drove his victory in the 2020 elections.
The survey published Monday by USA Today and Suffolk University revealed that Biden has the support of 63% of African-American voters compared to 87% in the 2020 elections. Regarding the Hispanic vote, Biden earned 34% of support among Hispanic voters surveyed, compared with Trump’s 39%. That marks a large decline since 2020, when Biden earned 65% of the Latino demographic to Trump's 32%. Biden is also losing support from young voters, since according to the survey Trump leads voting intentions among voters under 35 years of age, with 37% compared to 33% for Biden.
A fraying coalition: Black, Hispanic, young voters abandon Biden as election year begins https://t.co/JJnv44nYhk
— USA TODAY (@USATODAY) January 1, 2024
Overall, candidate Donald Trump far surpasses President Biden two weeks before the Republican primaries begin with the Iowa caucuses on January 15. The USA Today survey indicates that, in a hypothetical Trump-Biden presidential competition, the former Republican president leads the current Democratic president by two percentage points ( %-37% ).
However, not all of the vote that Joe Biden loses would go to Donald Trump. The poll found that 20% of Hispanic and black voters and 21% of young voters say they will support someone other than the two main contenders. One in five black voters now say they will support a third-party candidate in November. Trump has the support of 12% of black voters, precisely the percentage he received in 2020.
Overall – beyond specific groups – 17% of voters surveyed support an unnamed third-party candidate.
However, from Suffolk University they see Biden's loss of votes as an opportunity for Donald Trump's re-election: "Although Trump has not increased support among black voters, he has closed the deficit because third-party voters leave the support for Biden among Blacks," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk Policy Research Center. "A young voter or person of color voting for a 'third party' is a vote taken away from President Biden, and a vote taken away from President Biden is a vote for Donald Trump ."
Donald Trump leads the Republican primaries
On the other hand, Trump, 77, begins the election year with an increasing dominance of the race for the Republican Party nomination. The former president has the support of 62% of likely Republican primary voters, a record for him in the USA Today and Suffolk University poll.
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, with 13%, came in second place ahead of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who continues his decline in support to 10%. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is at 6% and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is at 4%.
📊 2024 National Republican Primary
Trump: 62% (+4)
Haley: 13% (+2)
DeSantis: 10% (-2)
Ramaswamy: 6% (+3)
Christie: 4% (+3)[Change vs October]
USA Today/Suffolk (A-) | LVs | 12/26-29https://t.co/abv9KFly6B pic.twitter.com/cExb6i2veY
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 1, 2024
The USA Today /Suffolk University poll was conducted among 1,000 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
