Kamala Harris sought the presidency in 2020 without much success. After drawing attention for her criticism of Joe Biden in the debates, she withdrew her candidacy before the primaries began due to a lack of popular support and enthusiasm among donors. At the time, she was punished by the press, which commented on her lack of magnetism with African-American voters and ambiguous positions on many issues, such as health care.
However, when Biden announced that he would choose her to join him on the ticket, her name sparked an infatuation rarely seen before. As Jack Shafer of POLITICO wrote at the time, "Yesterday, Harris was just another overbaked politician. Today, she’s fresh as can be, and the press corps can’t stop salivating".
Everything previously written ceased to matter from one day to the next. "Remember Harris’ inability to connect with Black voters? Never mind. Now the New York Times reports 'that she could reinforce Mr. Biden’s appeal to Black voters and women without stirring particularly vehement opposition on the right or left'", Shafer added in his commentary.
Throughout the election year, she was painted as a mastermind who would surely pull the strings of a possible administration given the advanced age of the candidate for president. This honeymoon began to cool down in January 2021 when she arrived at the White House with Joe Biden.
The president gave her a task that would begin to destabilize her: addressing the immigration challenges on the southern border of the United States. Many political analysts assert that politics is perception. Harris didn't show up at the border for months, giving a somewhat nonchalant image on the matter.
That was the beginning of the end for the former senator's popularity. Her approval numbers have not recovered since September 2021, and she continuously measured far lower than President Biden. In fact, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, she is 5% behind his boss.
This situation sidelined her from campaigning in key races during the 2022 midterm elections and even sparked rumors about whether she would be replaced in 2024. When Stephen Breyer retired from the Supreme Court, it was commented that Biden could send her there and kill two birds with one stone.
Too late to replace Kamala Harris
Despite rumors that including the current vice president could become a liability for the campaign, Biden confirmed the Biden-Harris ticket for 2024. Although the names of Susan Rice and Stacey Abrams were circulated as possible options, the formula that was successful in 2020 will be repeated.
In 1992, George H.W. Bush faced a brutal re-election campaign against Bill Clinton and Ross Perot. Given the unpopularity of then Vice President Dan Quayle, there were many rumors that he would step down to help his boss. However, he remained on the ticket. The duo was subsequently defeated thanks to the wear and tear of 12 years of government by the same party, Perot's competitiveness and the perception of a slow economic recovery.
Years later, James Baker III, Bush's campaign manager at the time, would write the following in his autobiography, "Still, the biggest favor he could have done for the president- and the country, in my opinion- would have been to graciously take himself off the ticket".
Turning to 2023, Biden faces a similar scenario. Harris remains unpopular with voters to such an extent that she experienced red number spikes of 29% in 2021. In March 2023, she was booed when shown on the JumboTron at a basketball game.
The murmurings have also reached the Democratic Party. Elizabeth Warren made a comment that did not go down well with Harris' entourage. The senator hesitated when asked about the 2024 ticket, prompting several calls for apologies that went unanswered.
On the other hand, Bill Maher was one of the most explicit commentators in calling on Biden to find someone else to join him. "It's very hard to take the nomination away from the president. What I could see is replacing the vice president because she's not very popular anywhere," the Real Time with Bill Maher host expressed in 2022.
"I just think she's a bad politician. I don't...I don't think she's a very bright person. This is the problem with the Democratic Party. They are so pigeonholed in identity politics that you can't conceive of a Democratic ticket that doesn't have a woman and a person of color. And pretty soon you're going to line up behind that gay Latino and you're going to have to have, you know, a deaf Eskimo," he added at the time.
Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic strategist, spoke with The New York Sun and explained why Biden did not replace Harris despite her political shortcomings. "Symbols in American politics are very important. It would be very difficult for Joe Biden to get a black woman off the ticket," he said.
At the same time, he made it clear that the duo would need a lot of African-American voter turnout to claim victory, making pushing them off the ticket even more difficult. "So now he has a problem. He can't get rid of her without alienating African-Americans or Black voters generally. And, on the other hand, he doesn't have a foil from the age issue, because she's not competent carrying the argument," Sheinkopf finished.
