Four months before the mid-term elections, the Republican Party has an eight-point lead over the Democratic Party. The Rasmussen Reports (RR) polling firm has conducted a survey that shows a 48% voting intention for the Republican Party, to 40% for the Democrats.
The survey was conducted between July 5 and 7 among 2,000 likely voters. The margin of error is 2%. The Grand Old Party (GOP) has led in the general polls all year. And it has improved its lead compared to last week's poll, which reflected a 47% lead to the Democrats' 42%.
In 2018, he predicted a Democratic victory
General polls do not have the same ability to predict election results as those conducted to know what the outcome will be in each circumsunscription, but they do allow us to take the pulse of the evolution of opinion.
For example, in July 2018, exactly four years ago and again four months before the midterm elections, the lead in this same Democratic RR poll was 6 percentage points. In that election, the Democratic Party won its first majority in eight years. The overall poll just before the election picked up a lead of only 1 percentage point (46-45%).
36% of whites vote Democratic.
88% of Republican voters say they will go to the polls in support of their candidates, to 79% of Democrats. Among independents, 43% will vote Republican, to 31% who choose to vote Democratic. That's a 12-point difference among independent voters.
Voters under 40 prefer Democrats (by a 47% to 38% margin), but those over that age prefer Republicans (53% vs. 40%). Fifty-four percent of whites, 27% of black voters and 43% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty-one percent of black voters, 36% of whites and 41% of other minorities would vote for Democrats.