As the Republican Party prepared for a very relaxed Senate primary in Montana, Matt Rosendale decided to throw his name into the race. The congressman announced his Senate candidacy Friday, contrary to the wishes of Steve Daines (R-Mont.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), who endorsed another candidate that he believed is more capable of winning in the general election.
Unlike his predecessor, Daines, who, as head of the NRSC, is in charge of getting more Republicans into Senate, opted for a more aggressive strategy in the primary process. His plan was to directly support the candidates who had the best fundraising capacity and highest chances of winning at the polls.
Based on this criteria, he has already given his approval to Jim Justice in West Virginia, Sam Brown in Nevada, Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania and to Tim Sheehy in Montana. For the NRSC chairman, Sheehy is the Republican with the best chance of taking this seat from the Democrats, so he hoped that his support would be enough to clear the way in a potentially competitive primary.
#MTSen pic.twitter.com/1BDerZNA3h
— Senate Republicans (@NRSC) June 27, 2023
That dream ended with the announcement by Rosendale, who has already attacked Sheehy and described him as a member of the "Washington establishment."
"This morning, I officially filed for the U.S. Senate. We’ve made great accomplishments in the House, only to see them die at the hands of Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer in the Senate. Montanans want a Senator that fights for WE,THE PEOPLE, not the D.C. Cartel!" said the Republican on X to announce his candidacy.
Rosendale already sought a seat in the Senate in 2018 and was defeated by current Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who he would have to face again if he wins the nomination. At that time, he obtained 46% of the votes against the Democrat's 50%. This is one of the reasons why the NRSC was looking for a new candidate for 2024.
Mitch McConnell and the Uniparty have controlled the Senate for far too long and are the architects of a $34 trillion debt.
It’s time they understand that Montanans don’t take orders from Washington, we send orders to Washington! pic.twitter.com/cUoK9P4aV5
— Matt Rosendale (@MattForMontana) February 9, 2024
For political analyst Jeremy Johnson, the congressman's candidacy "highlights divisions within the Republican Party." He continued, in an interview with Carroll College in Helena: "Certainly they'll both be spending money in the primary campaign. If it gets really negative, that's certainly a benefit for the Democratic candidate."
Donald Trump has already endorsed a candidate
Minutes after Rosendale's announcement, and with the intention of simplifying the election for the state's Republicans, Donald Trump posted a message on Truth Social officially endorsing Tim Sheehy.
"I LOVE MONTANA! Tim Sheehy is an American Hero and highly successful Businessman from the Great State of Montana. He is strongly supported by our incredible Chairman of the NRSC, Steve Daines, and many other patriotic Senators and Republicans who have endorsed our Campaign to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!" wrote the former president. Although he also spoke highly of Rosendale, he made it clear that he trusts Sheehy more this election cycle.
"I also respect Matt Rosendale, and was very happy to Endorse him in the past - and will Endorse him again in the future should he decide to change course and run for his Congressional Seat. But in this instance, Tim is the candidate who is currently best-positioned to DEFEAT Lazy Jon Tester, and Regain the Republican Majority in the United States Senate. Tim is a Political Outsider, Strong on the Border, the Military/Vets, and our constantly under siege Second Amendment. He will stand tall in the fight against the Radical Left Democrats, who are Destroying our Country. Also, he is far more likely to Defeat Lazy Jon. America First Patriot Tim Sheehy has my Complete and Total Endorsement!" he concluded.
The GOP's chance to take back the Senate in 2024
The 2024 Senate map looks promising for Republicans. Of the 34 seats that will be up for grabs, only 11 are currently held by the GOP. As if that were not enough of an advantage, they have almost no vulnerable seats. Prior to 2022, some Democrats looked fondly on the seats held by Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) , although the path to defeating them seems uphill given the electoral context.
On the opposite side of the road, things look a little bleaker. Democrats will have to defend at least eight competitive elections, which, in the worst case, could give Republicans a solid lead in the Senate. These races are in West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Michigan, all of them threatening the Democrats' slim majority in the Senate.
With West Virginia almost in the bag after Manchin announced he would not seek re-election, The Treasure State offers one of the biggest opportunities for the GOP. If Republicans win there, they would almost surely take back the Senate. Donald Trump carried the state by almost 17% in 2020, and Republicans took an 18% lead in the 2022 midterms. The only thing that stands between the Republicans and a victory is Jon Tester.
Jon Tester, a blue spot in a red state
A farmer and former music teacher, Tester has the habit of dyeing Montana blue once every six years. He came to the Senate in 2007 after unseating incumbent Conrad Burns by less than 4,000 votes.
He won re-election in 2012, increasing his margin of victory, which he stretched even further in his third race in 2018. According to GovTrack, he is the fourth most moderate Democrat in the Senate, trailing only Joe Manchin, Raphael Warnock and Maggie Hassan.
My family has lived in Montana for generations, and I see the way it’s changing. I’m defending our way of life with all I’ve got. pic.twitter.com/kmhgH01PsZ
— Jon Tester (@jontester) January 24, 2024
The strategy of moving even closer to the center ahead of the elections worked well for him in 2018. For example, the 115th Congress took place between January 2017 and January 2019, when Trump was still president. With the elections scheduled for November 2018, the senator had one year and 11 months to somehow reinforce his image as a moderate to voters.
During this time period, Tester voted 38.1% of the time with Trump's position, then lowered that number to 16.3% during the next Congress when re-election was not on the line.
“Montanans need a fighter that will hold our government accountable and demand Washington stand up for veterans and lower costs for families. I will always fight to defend our Montana values,” he wrote on X to announce he would be seeking another term.
Tester is the most popular Democratic senator among those who will seek re-election in 2024. According to Morning Consult, he is viewed positively by 60% and negatively by just 30%, which also places him as the eighth most popular member of the Senate.
The GOP will bet big on this seat, and they have reason to do so. The coincidence with a presidential election could be vital when it comes to sending Tester back to Montana. Based on the 2020 election results, Tester will need to convince 17% of the electorate who voted for Trump to vote blue in the Senate race in order to maintain his seat.
