"If people are failing, they look inept. If people are successful, they look strong, good, and competent. That's the 'halo effect'. Your first impression of something sets up your subsequent beliefs. If the company looks inept to you, you may assume everything else they do is inept," Daniel Kahneman, author of the book Think Fast, Think Slow, said in 2018.
Five years later, the phrase is fundamental for the upcoming Republican debate. Unlike a debate between the nominees of each party, where they are already on stage in front of voters who have heard of them (perhaps to the point of exhaustion), the first meeting between the candidates is a chance for voters to get to know them better. It is one that can boost campaigns or tear them apart in less than two hours. That's how powerful it is.
Many voters will see some candidates for the first time when they stand behind their podium at the debate. Not only will it be the first time they hear them speak, but also the first time they see them physically. This first televised debate always reminds us how important one's image can be in any election.
When John F. Kennedy entered the NBC studios in 1960 to prepare for the race, journalist Theodore White wrote: "He looks like a tanned God." This was because he spent the whole afternoon sunbathing on his hotel balcony. It was quite different than Republican Richard Nixon, who appeared worn down. In the words of Roger Stone, "Nixon arrived late in Chicago, looking tired, emaciated and underweight from recent knee surgery. In addition, she refused to put on makeup. He also wore a light-colored three-button coat. JFK looked tanned and confident. Nixon looked pale and nervous," he said in his book Stone's Rules.
Those who listened to the debate on the radio declared Nixon the winner, however, those who watched it on television, mostly leaned towards that handsome and tan senator from Massachusetts. Before the event, the Republican was leading the Democrat by six points in the polls, so that was the beginning of the end for Tricky Dicky's first presidential race.
Therefore, as Kahneman indicated, the first impression a candidate can make in the first debate is not an opportunity to be missed, especially if they truly hope to make it to the White House.
The first debate of the primaries
Over the years, the first debate of the primaries has been full of memorable moments, such as when Ronald Reagan said "I'm paying for this microphone" in 1980, the tense argument between Bill Clinton and Jerry Brown in 1992 or when Rick Perry could not name the three government agencies he intended to do away with if he became president in 2012.
In addition to those videos which are still making their rounds on social media, we can't forget about the power this first debate has when it comes to boosting or sinking campaigns. Kamala Harris in 2020 and Ted Cruz in 2016 are the perfect examples of the positive effect the first debate had on their campaigns while the second is what happened with John Edwards in 2008 and Jeb Bush in 2016.
DEMOCRACY '24: Watch the first Republican presidential primary debate of the 2024 election on August 23rd starting at 9PM ET only on Fox News Channel. pic.twitter.com/NH1DkMrVli
— Fox News (@FoxNews) August 21, 2023
On this occasion scheduled for Wednesday, August 23, Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie, Doug Burgum and Asa Hutchinson will face off in the first debate organized by the Republican National Committee (RNC). Although Donald Trump also met the requirements, he chose not to participate. We will also have to wait to see what happens with Perry Johnson and Francis Suarez, who claimed to have met the requirements but have not yet been confirmed.
“The RNC is excited to showcase our diverse candidate field and the conservative vision to beat Joe Biden on the debate stage Wednesday night,” RNC Chairman Ronna McDaniel said Monday night.
Fox News will organize, moderate and broadcast the event which will begin at 9 p.m. (Eastern Time). As for the format, candidates will not make opening statements and will have one minute to answer questions. In addition, they will have 30 seconds to respond to follow-ups and 45 seconds for final statements.
Cover letter
The candidates are positioned based on their current ranking in the polls. Candidates who are less known, such as Hutchinson and Burgum, will first try to make a name for themselves and then stand out for their agenda.
In the words of the governor of North Dakota, the first thing to solve is the "Who is Doug?" The same goes for the former governor of Arkansas, who brings to the table a taste of Republicanism from the eighties and nineties, which is quite different from the Republicans who are leading in the polls nowadays.
The stage is set for the first Republican Presidential Debate! Tune in tomorrow at 9:00pm EST. pic.twitter.com/1I6HZcea6g
— GOP (@GOP) August 22, 2023
"This debate is enormously important, not only for the top-tier candidates but for those who have yet to break through. This is the first national opportunity for a lot of these candidates to make an impression on voters," Jim Merrill, a Republican consultant from New Hampshire, told Fox News.
"Everyone wants to take out Ron DeSantis"
In the absence of the former president, all eyes will be on Ron DeSantis. Analysts agree that he is the man to beat. "They all want to take out [Florida Gov. Ron] DeSantis, because he was the early front runner to be the contender for Trump," strategist Kellyanne Conway said days ago.
The governor of Florida wants to revive his presidential campaign and the first debate is a unique opportunity. He went from 30% in the polls in January to 15% in August. This has to change if he wants to be the Republican nominee. In addition to converting Trump's voters, he will try to make a name for himself as the only candidate who is capable of beating Joe Biden in the general election.
POLL🚨
Do you support President Trump’s decision to do an interview with Tucker Carlson rather than attend the Fox News GOP debate?
YES or NO?
Be honest & comment thoughts below👇
— The Trump Train 🚂🇺🇸 (@The_Trump_Train) August 21, 2023
According to a campaign document, the governor of Florida will try to demote his closest contenders, Ramaswamy and Scott, to second place. He will also have to defend himself from Christie and defend Trump so as not to anger his base.
Ramaswamy and Scott will want to beat DeSantis, although they will use different strategies to do so. The businessman has been rising in the polls (he reached third place) but he is still far from definitively detaching from fourth and fifth place, so his outsider speech will go for those who are frustrated with the Republican establishment.
On the other hand, the South Carolina senator's hopeful rhetoric will appeal to moderate Republicans and those who voted for Trump in the past but are now a little reluctant to do so because of his recent court cases.
Pence, Haley and Christie
Despite having good name recognition, Mike Pence admitted that he will take advantage of this debate to give voters the chance to get to know him better. Trump's followers will have their eyes on him. He will go after the same Republicans as Scott, although he will back himself up with the achievements of the Trump-Pence administration.
Thanks to your support, I announced this morning that we had surpassed 40,000 unique donors to qualify for the RNC’s first debate.
Thank you to everyone that donated for believing that consistent, commonsense, conservative leadership is needed to bring out the best of America! pic.twitter.com/HKeZLYV9FW
— Gov. Asa Hutchinson (@AsaHutchinson) August 20, 2023
Nikki Haley, ambassador to the United Nations between 2017 and 2018, has a similar situation. She is expected to go head to head with Ramaswamy but she will not directly attack Trump except on specific issues.
There isn't much mystery to Chris Christie's strategy. He has a very clear objective since he announced his candidacy: to sink Trump. The former governor of New Jersey will go after the former president for his role in the January 6 attacks on the capitol, his recent indictments and his temperament. Hutchinson could back him up on at least two of these three points.
In addition to trying to demote DeSantis, the absence of the former president opens a window to appeal to his voters and connect with them. "62 percent of Republican voters want an alternative or are open to an alternative to Trump," said Martha MacCallum, who will moderate the debate alongside Bret Baier.
We’re 2 days out from the first GOP debate in Milwaukee.
It’s game time.
I’m ready. Are you? pic.twitter.com/D5oyqNs6wo
— Tim Scott (@votetimscott) August 21, 2023
The debate does not end when the lights go out. It will continue on social media, where people will go back and forth about who won. For this to happen, the candidates will need to have at least one response go viral.
"It's about creating moments of viral advancement. A moment of strength that goes beyond a 45-second response on fiscal policy or agricultural policy," Merrill said.
What will the candidates debate?
While there are many issues on the agenda, MacCallum said that part of the debate will focus on the following topics:
- Donald Trump
- Ukraine
- America's role in the world
- Who can beat Joe Biden?
- Abortion
Upcoming debates
The second debate between the candidates will be on Wednesday, September 27 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California. A third debate could take place in Alabama.
In 2016, five debates were held prior to the start of the Republican primaries and 12 in total, so August 23 is expected to be the first of many debates.
