Who are the favorites to succeed Francis?

Although there’s an old saying when it comes to choosing a new successor to Saint Peter that says, "he who enters the conclave as pope leaves as a cardinal," the truth is that every time has been convened, a group of princes of the Church enters with more influence than the rest. Although on many occasions they have not been the ones who have collected the most votes, their weight has often been decisive in advising or influencing other electors toward a particular candidate.

On this occasion, two-thirds of the College of Cardinals were appointed by Francis. In the same way, most of the cardinals being mentioned as potential successors are aligned with him, though with some nuance in how open or conciliatory their profiles may be compared to Bergoglio. That said, it’s not out of the question that a more conservative figure could ultimately end up seated on the Chair of Saint Peter.

Almost 50 years without an Italian pope

Many are those who are betting on the return of an Italian pope. After three consecutive papacies (St. John Paul II, Benedict XVI and Francis himself) and 47 years without a supreme pontiff born in the country that has produced the most popes. Nonetheless, Bergoglio's bet on the periphery has significantly diluted the weight of Europe in the vocation with respect to "the peripheries."

With this background, the two main favorites are Pietro Parolin, Vatican Secretary of State and Francis' number two, and Matteo Zuppi, president of the Italian Episcopal Conference and a person of total confidence of the late pontiff. Alongside them, the figure of the Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, of an even more progressive profile than Bergoglio and currently pro prefect of the Section for First Evangelization and the New Particular Churches of the Dicastery of Evangelization, emerges strongly.

Within the conservative spectrum, appear the Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdő, one of the most veteran with his 20 years as a cardinal, and the Dutch Willem Eijk, Archbishop of Utrecht and a prominent theologian close to the line of Benedict XVI. Although the names of the great opponents of Francis always come to the fore, such as Robert Sarah and the American Raymond Burke, both have few real ballots because they are perceived as too hardline.

Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70 years old)

Francis' right-hand man. Parolin is renowned for his diplomatic skills and his influence has been felt in the management of the Holy See's internal and external affairs. He also has extensive experience in international relations and a moderate profile, which makes him a consensus pope.

Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69 years old)

The president of the Italian Bishops' Conference is considered by many to be Francis' dolphin. A member of the Community of Sant'Egidio, a movement based on the poor, prayer and peace. His weight is demonstrated by the fact that Bergoglio himself entrusted him with a peace mission in Ukraine, proof of his ability to deal in complicated environments, something key to the current global geopolitical situation.

Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67 years old)

The most progressive candidate of the papables, with more radical positions even than those of Francis on some of the key points. Pro-prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples, Tagle is the face of the growing Asian Catholic community. He stands out for his charism and pastoral experience. His current position gives him great visibility and weight in "the peripheries," key to the upcoming vote following Bergoglio's changes to the College of Cardinals.

Fridolin Ambongo (Democratic Republic of Congo, 65 years old)

The strong man of the African Church, the fastest growing Church in Catholicism right now and with an increasing influence. His rise has been meteoric since he was created cardinal in 2019. Shortly thereafter, he gained entry into the C9 (the nine cardinals surrounding the pope). His leadership ability was clear when he launched an appeal to all Africans to adopt a common position against the blessing of same-sex couples launched by Francis. He himself conveyed to Rome the "No" to this initiative and obtained a derogation from the pontiff himself. Apart from this gesture, his position is moderate, with nods also to more progressive positions, as in the area of social justice. For example, he assured that "Africa would support the female diaconate" if the pontiff considered it appropriate.

Peter Erdő (Hungary, 72 years old)

Conservative in outlook, the archbishop of Budapest is a prominent theologian who has played a key role in ecumenical dialogue, especially with the Orthodox churches. Many highlight his culture and his ability to unite different faith communities and his ability to unite all sensibilities. The International Eucharistic Congress in Budapest in 2021 was one of the milestones that put him on everyone's lips as a reference and example.

Willem Eijk (Netherlands, 71 years old)

Another of the conservatives who has possibilities. A doctor by training before becoming a priest, he is an outstanding defender of Life from birth to death and a fervent activist against euthanasia. He has opposed Francis on several of his key proposals such as the approach to the LGBT movement, communion for the divorced. His position is that "the future lies in the orthodox faith, clearly and authentically manifested."

Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline (France, 66 years old)

Considered Francis' favorite to succeed him, his main handicap is that he is not well known. Of Algerian origin and immigrant parents, the Archbishop of Marseilles is a skilled politician, without having taken a clear position on key issues. Those who second him highlight his pragmatic approach, which allows him to reach consensus in difficult environments.

Robert McElroy (USA, 61 years old)

Francis' strongman in the US, who transferred him to Washington after Donald Trump's victory. Defender of immigrants and a staunch opponent of the Republican's policies since his arrival at the White House, his appointment could be seen as a declaration of war, which detracts from his options.

Timothy M. Dolan (USA. 75 years old)

In the opposite situation to the previous one, he is well regarded in the White House, and, in fact, led the thanksgiving service of Trump's inauguration in January. He is a steadfast man, who in 2020, warned Trump that his messages after losing the election could provoke violence in the country. If elected, it would be a nod toward the president at a time when relations between the Vatican and Washington are strained by the Republican's policies, especially on immigration.