‘It was a tsunami; there was a shift in the country toward the Democrats, and this is a lesson we need to understand’: Andrés Guilarte on the midterm election results

Pollster and political analyst Andrés Guilarte attributed the Republican defeat in the midterm elections to the impact of the economy, immigration policy and the quality of the candidates. In an interview with Karina Yapor, anchor and executive director of “Voz News,” he warned that the shift in the Hispanic vote toward the Democrats should serve as a wake-up call for the Republican Party looking ahead to 2028.

"There was a nationwide shift toward the Democratic Party," said Guilarte, who described the result as a "tsunami" that even swept through traditionally Republican states. In Florida, he noted, Donald Trump won by a much smaller margin than Ron DeSantis did in 2022. He also noted that exit polls showed a shift of more than 25 points in the Hispanic vote toward the Democrats compared to 2024. "If we don't pay attention to this, we're going to fare worse in 2028," he warned.

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Guilarte agreed that the war with Iran contributed to the election results by driving up the prices of gasoline and diesel and, consequently, the cost of basic necessities. However, he maintained that "the economy is the most important issue" and noted that tariffs have also influenced prices. He added immigration policy to the mix: in his view, raids and deportations particularly affected Hispanic communities, such as Miami-Dade, where the protest vote reflected "a great many things."

The analyst also noted that some Republican candidates relied too heavily on Trump's support and failed to build strong campaign teams. "There are candidates who simply didn't measure up," he said, citing the case of Kansas, where Republican Senator Roger Marshall lost after a campaign that, according to Guilarte, lacked a sufficient independent structure.

Regarding Texas, Guilarte suggested that new residents from other states may have influenced the outcome, though he clarified that data is still needed to determine how they voted. He also noted that James Talarico contributed to Gina Hinojosa's victory in the gubernatorial race. In his view, the Republicans' loss of support after years in power also played a role: "It's hard [...] to say you're going to change something" when you've had 12 years to do so.

Elsewhere in the interview, Guilarte argued that the Republican Party must analyze the causes of the defeat without rushing to assign blame. "It's too early to assign that kind of blame," he said, stressing that understanding the shift in voter behavior will be essential to defining the party's strategy in the coming years.

You can watch the full interview by clicking on the video below.