"It's pure toss-up": Trump and Harris come in evenly matched at the polls

"It's a pure toss-up." The phrase from polling guru Nate Silver perfectly sums up the major tie situation in which Donald Trump and Kamala Harris arrive at the polls. Right now, the main news aggregators place both candidates as possible winners with a range of less than one point. Silver's own projections give the Republican a slight edge as he would win 53 times out of 100 versus 46 for the Democrat.

According to aggregator Real Clear Politics (RCP), Trump starts with a rickety 0.1% point lead to become the next president. However, 538, from ABC News, puts Kamala Harris 0.9 points ahead. That said, Harris is in free fall according to this site's data, having lost more than 1.5 points in just 15 days.

Trump, slightly favored in the latest polls and for bookmakers

According to the projections made by Silver and his team, Trump would have a 53% chance of returning to the White House, compared to 47 for Kamala. These predictions are achieved with 1,000 simulations based "on a combination of polls and 'fundamental' data from the campaign, such as the economic situation, state partisanship and incumbency," as they explain on their website. They also point out that "it is not a matter of 'proclaiming' a winner, but of giving an idea of the probabilities of victory of each candidate."

The latest polls to which 538 itself gives a greater reliability mostly give victory to Trump by up to two points. The exception is Ipsos with the pollster's own parent company, ABC News, which puts Harris 3 points ahead. RCP adds that the latest polls from NBC and the New York Post,point to a tie with 49% of voting intention for each.

At bookmakers, the former president is even more favored. Although his numbers are far from the overwhelming 67% that gave him last week Polymarket, Trump goes into election eve with 57.9% confidence, compared to 42.2% for Harris.

Trump would win in 5 of the 7 swing states

Looking at the swing states, the key to deciding the number of pledges for each contender, the polls also lean toward a Republican victory. RCP gives Trump an average lead of 0.8 points in the seven states in question, though he would be narrowly defeated in Michigan (-0.3 points) and Wisconsin (-0.6). Trump's lead would be especially strong in Arizona (2.6 points), Georgia (1.9) and North Carolina (1.5). North Carolina (1.5), while in Nevada he would win by exactly one point and in Pensylvania by a scant 0.3. More optimistic is the Atlas Intel poll, which pointed to Trump winning all seven swing states.