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Presidential Election 2024

Trump ahead in all seven swing states with two days to go before the election

According to Real Clear Politics, the Republican is 0.3 points ahead nationally, when in 2020 Biden led by 7.2 points and Clinton by 1.8 in 2016.

Elecciones Presidenciales 2024 | Trump y Harris, en actos de campaña

Trump and Harris, at campaign events.AFP

Published by
Israel Duro

With two days to go before the election, the most prestigious and accurate polls indicate that Donald Trump is the big favorite to return to the White House. According to a poll published by Atlas Intel on Saturday, November 2, the former president is leading in the seven swing states in contention, and in three of them even above the margin of error. Moreover, according to news aggregator Real Clear Politics, the Republican is 0.3 points ahead nationally, when in 2020 Joe Biden led by 7.2 points and Hillary Clinton by 1.8 in 2016.

The Atlas Intel poll, the closest in its 2020 predictions, indicates that Trump would sweep Arizona (6.5 points), Nevada (5.5) and North Carolina (3.4). He would also prevail in Georgia (2.5 points), Pennsylvania (1.8), Michigan (1.5) and Wisconsin (1). Notably, in the first three cases his lead is above the margin of error of the polls, while in the Keystone State it is borderline (the margin is 2%).

A survey of more women than men

It is noteworthy that in each of these states more women than men were surveyed. An important detail since this is a demographic group with a much greater tendency to vote for Kamala Harris than for the former president.

Among the minority ethnic groups in these traditionally Democratic states, Trump would win among Hispanics in Arizona (51.4-48.6%), Nevada (49.5-48.2%) and North Carolina (49.9-47%). But, above all, his overwhelming victory among black voters in Wisconsin (64.8-35.2%) is striking.

This data is confirmed by the RCP aggregator. According to the latter, Trump, on average, leads the voting intention in these states by 1.2 points (48.6-47.4%). However, RCP gives meager victories to Harris in Wisconsin (0.1 points) and Michigan (0.6).

Trump, 1.8 points ahead nationally according to Atlas Intel

In a second Atlas Intel poll, this one nationwide, Donald Trump is 1.8 points ahead of Kamala Harris. According to the 2,463 respondents surveyed between November 1 and 2, the Republican would be elected by 49% of Americans, while Harris would have the support of 47.2%. The Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, would get 1%, while Cornel West and Chase Oliver would tie with 0.3%. Notably, the majority of poll participants were women (52.1%).

In a scenario with minority votes, Trump would get the backing of 38.4% of Latinos, compared to 57.7% for Kamala, and 27.9% of black voters (to 62.9% Democratic). In a hypothetical head-to-head, the Republican would maintain the same percentage among Hispanics, and would exceed 30% among blacks. Kamala, meanwhile, would win 60.1% among Latinos and 63.6% among blacks.
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