War of predictions in Iowa: Harris takes lead in major local poll, but Trump still favored to win state

In an unexpected twist, a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll shows vice president Kamala Harris with 44% support in Iowa, beating former President Donald Trump, who won by more than eight points in this state in 2020, by three points. This shift in a historically battleground state with a recent Republican tilt has caused surprise in the political environment. However, Trump continues to emerge as the favorite in other polls.

A key state in play

Iowa, known for hosting the first caucuses of the presidential nominating cycle, has historically been a battleground state. In recent years, however, the state has trended toward Republicans. According to pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. this sudden shift is something few expected: "It's hard for anybody to say they saw this coming."

Among the poll's notable findings, Harris holds a significant lead among independent women voters, beating Trump by 28 percentage points (57% vs. 29%), while the former president has the majority among independent male voters, with a 10-point lead (47% vs. 37%).

Credibility of the poll

The Des Moines Register poll, conducted by the renowned J Ann Selzer, has been considered a benchmark in Iowa because of its track record of accuracy. However, its reputation has also been questioned in the past. Political writer and commentator Ryan James Girdusky noted in a post on X that Selzer had notable errors in previous elections, citing inaccurate forecasts in 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016.

Emerson College poll contradicts results

Despite the lead Harris shows in the Des Moines Register poll, another measurement by Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense paints a different picture. According to this poll, Trump maintains solid support from 53% of Iowa voters, compared to 43% who support Harris. In addition, the Emerson College poll finds that Trump has a lead among women by five percentage points (51% vs. 46%) and an even larger lead among men (56% vs. 39%).

"Trump also leads among independents, 53% to 36%", commented Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, reflecting a significant difference from the Selzer poll.

A divided electoral landscape

The disparity between the two polls reflects the uncertain political landscape in Iowa and raises questions about the accuracy of polls in this election cycle. While polls can be indicative of trends, these mixed results highlight the volatility of the electorate in a state considered key. With the election just days away, both Democrats and Republicans will be closely watching voter behavior in Iowa, aware that the state could play a decisive role in the 2024 presidential contest.