Bernie Moreno takes the lead in Ohio Senate race, where the majority could be defined

The Republican Party is determined to retake the Senate in the November election, and one of the states targeted is Ohio, where the Democratic incumbent, Sherrod Brown, aims to win a third term. Although the race started uphill for the Republican challenger, Bernie Moreno, the latest internal polls show him three percentage points ahead of his rival.

Moreno, a Colombian-born businessman who is making his political debut, stands in stark contrast to Brown's thirty years in Washington, D.C. Despite averaging 6% voting intention at the start of the primaries, he managed to win the endorsements of Donald Trump and JD Vance, ultimately achieving the Republican nomination.

While Brown has a wide lead in terms of fundraising, plus the benefits of being an incumbent senator, the race began to even out in recent months. Indeed, Moreno's latest internal poll shows him up three points over the Democrat.

Ohio could be key to a Republican majority in the Senate

As reported by Axios, "a new Fabrizio Lee poll conducted for the Moreno campaign shows the Republican up 47% to Brown's 44%," with a margin of error of just over three points.

"Republicans have been telling Axios that they are optimistic about Moreno's chances of unseating Brown, who has long relied on his unique populist style to hold onto a seat in a now-Republican state," the media outlet added.

Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate. Their problem is that this year, they are renewing "class one" senators, which forces them to defend up to eight seats in competitive states: Montana, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio, although potentially Maryland could join the list.

Polls have Montana and West Virginia as the states most likely to vote Republican, which would lead the GOP to retake the majority they lost in 2021. If Ohio joins this list, the GOP would move to a 52-48 majority, pending what happens in other states where the polls are also evening out.

For example, the latest polls show that the three Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are becoming increasingly even in Senate races.