Trump leads Harris in key states

According to new polls, former President Donald Trump has a lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in an essential voting area: voters in the key swing states.

Polls by InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar revealed that Trump leads in six swing states.

Trump's lead over Harris.

In the InsiderAdvantage poll, Trump beats Harris in:

- Arizona (49% to 48%).

- Nevada (48% to 47%).

- North Carolina (49% to 48%).

In Georgia, the poll reveals a "tie" (with a minimal 0.4% difference for a Harris victory).

In the Trafalgar poll, the results give Trump victories in:

- Pensylvania (47% to 44.9%).

- Wisconsin (47.3% to 43.2%).

- Michigan (47% to 46.6%).

But Trafalgar also highlighted results for Nevada, a state in which Trump would beat Harris by more than 4 percentage points (48.2% to 44.8%) and in North Carolina by more than 3 points (48.9% to 45.2%).

Trump is again the favorite and reaches his best percentage since July

Here at Voz, we reviewed that according to Nate Silver's most recent election forecast, which was released on September 3 after Labor Day, Trump has a 56% chance of winning the presidential election, his highest number since last July 31.

Despite the fact that Silver's polling average has Harris ahead in both the popular vote and the electoral college, the odds are back in the Republican's favor.

Indeed, Silver's forecast puts Trump at 57% to win Pennsylvania, plus 64% in Georgia, 67% in Arizona, 70% in North Carolina and 57% in Nevada. These states would give the Republican a win in the electoral college and return him to the White House.

On the other hand, in this poll Harris maintains the lead in Michigan (51%) and Wisconsin (53%). For Silver, the Democrat has the best chances of winning the popular vote, although, according to these numbers, it would not be enough to become the first female president in the history of the country.

While Silver's last forecast, released on Aug. 31, also had Trump as the favorite, this time he is back to the numbers he had in July. The last time Harris was ahead was Aug. 14, when she had a 56% chance of succeeding Joe Biden.

For the time being, the two will face off next Sept. 10 in the debate hosted by ABC News. Peculiarly, it will be the first face-to-face encounter between Trump and Harris.