Democrats' honeymoon stage with Kamala Harris continues as the candidate leads in many key states
According to Nate Silver's polling averages, the vice president could get 270 electors to Donald Trump's 268. The Democrat is expected to keep the momentum going until after the DNC.
Kamala Harris arrives at a campaign event in Eau Claire, Wisconsin/ Kamil Krzaczynski
Minutes after Joe Biden announced in July that he would not seek re-election, becoming the first president to make that decision since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968, there was much uncertainty about the behavior of the Democratic Party. While some called for an express primary process to select the new candidate, others pushed to unite behind Kamala Harris, thus taking advantage of the funds already raised. In the end, the option that prevailed was the latter, and since then, the vice president has not stopped rising in the polls.
Many political analysts are referring to the last few weeks as Harris' "honeymoon," which is expected to continue until after the Democratic National Convention. What does this honeymoon consist of? Basically, it consists of a sustained increase in her performance in the polls, both in the popular vote and in key states.
Indeed, pollster and political consultant Frank Luntz recently claimed that Harris, who recently announced Tim Walz as her running mate, was the "leader in this race."
This is precisely what Nate Silver's poll, which is conducted using "the most reliable polls," reflects.
According to this average, Harris would reach exactly 270 electors, against Donald Trump's 268. If these results are confirmed, it would be one of the closest elections in the history of the electoral college.
If we go to the popular vote, the Democrat is standing at 45.8%, against Trump's 43.7%, with a difference of just over two percentage points. Silver explained that Harris increased those two points in the last few days.
The race for key states
Pennsylvania: Kamala Harris (45.5%)- Donald Trump (44.5%)
Wisconsin: Kamala Harris (45.9%)- Donald Trump (44.5%)
Michigan: Kamala Harris (44.8%)- Donald Trump (42.4%)
Georgia: Donald Trump (46%)- Kamala Harris (44.8%)
Nevada: Donald Trump (42.6%)- Kamala Harris (42.1%)
North Carolina: Donald Trump (45.8%)- Kamala Harris (43.8%)
Arizona: Donald Trump (45.4%)- Kamala Harris (44.1%)
LATEST
