Trump's reasons for choosing JD Vance as VP: a nod to the Midwest, loyalty and the future of the MAGA movement

Donald Trump announced JD Vance as his running mate for the November presidential election. The Ohio senator will accompany the Republican nominee in his crusade to recall Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Among so many options, such as Marco Rubio, Doug Burgum, Tim Scott or Glenn Youngkin, the logical question would be the following: Why Vance? It turns out that the fellow author brings a number of advantages to the ticket, as well as some potential headaches;

For starters, born James Donald Bowman 39 years ago, the same age at which Richard Nixon agreed to be Dwight Eisenhower's running mate more than half a century earlier, the senator was chosen as VP just hours before the Republican National Convention. Behind closed doors, Politico reported that his boosters were Donald Trump Jr. and Tucker Carlson.

Vance himself learned he had been chosen just 20 minutes before the decision was made public, and it has already been confirmed that he will debate Kamala Harris in the coming months. With all that is involved in choosing a vice president, the Trump campaign clearly had to do an exhaustive analysis on his finalists and ended up opting for the senator, which shows their strategy heading into the November elections. 

Vance's choice shows how confident Trump is for November 

His stature and attractive blue eyes aside, the Ohio senator would balance the ticket in terms of age and region, being able to pull votes in key states. If elected, the senator would be the first vice president in history to hail from Ohio. 

In terms of electoral strategy, choosing Vance goes hand in hand with choosing Milwaukee as the site of this year's Republican National Convention, given that it highlights the type of voter and region they are trying to win over. In this case it is the Rust Belt, but particularly with a focus on Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania also taking into account the proximity to Minnesota. 

At the same time, it makes it clear that Trump is very confident that he will defeat Biden in November. Indeed, the former president could have tried to expand and diversify his electorate even more, to try to paint red states like Virginia or New Hampshire. If that had been his goal, names like Tim Scott or Glenn Youngkin would have been ideal.

However, understanding that reclaiming at least one state in the Midwest is enough, he bet on the candidate who could add the most in this region of the country. Vance's life story has the potential to empathize with the middle and working class in these states, although he only needs to win back one state. Trump currently leads comfortably in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. Assuming his comfortable lead holds and that this year's polls do not overestimate Republican support in the Silver State, he would return to the White House if he manages to add just one Midwestern state. 

The golden ticket to this take over is found in "Hillbilly Elegy," Vance's autobiography that catapulted him to national fame in 2016. In less than 400 pages, the author gives a raw account of his childhood and adolescence in the Midwest, discusses the region's issues and chronicles his path from poverty to Yale in a nod toward meritocracy. 

The senator is perceived as one of the most "Trumpist" members within the party, so it would seem that the former president is looking to build new leadership in the MAGA movement for the coming years. In spite of ideological similarity, there is balance in their respective ages, given that Vance has lived less than half as long as Trump. 

"Able deliver the America first punch in the mouth with class"

This is how Jesse Watters, a Fox News anchor, defined Vance. Indeed, one of Vance's main assets is that he is a very eloquent and articulate speaker, a skill he honed many years ago at Yale Law School. 

It's no secret to anyone how much Trump values someone who does well in television interviews and debates and is able defend his policies, something the Ohio senator knows how to do very well, even in more "hostile" studios. 

According to Ben Shapiro, Vance has the ability to be pragmatic in his policy positions, something he shares with Trump. For example, he flirts economically between protectionism and free markets, also moderating his position on abortion from being in favor of a 15-week national ban to supporting voters in each state determining abortion legislation. 

Trump also remarked on the fact that his running mate should be "loyal" and able to defend him, subtly attacking Mike Pence. Vance happens to be one of the closest senators to the president, even somehow "owing" him part of his political career, given that Trump endorsed his candidacy in a close Republican primary in 2022, which subsequently led him to the Senate. 

Last but not least, he is someone who has already participated in federal elections, which means that everything his rivals could have found against him would have already been published. Although there can always be some surprises, this can create peace of mind for the campaign.

Damage control

Of course Vance also has weaker points as a running mate. Perhaps the potentially most damaging to the ticket is the fact that he was highly critical of Donald Trump in the past, something that was brought against him in a recent interview with Fox News. He went so far as to say that those who voted for Trump were "idiots" and that the mogul's rhetoric was "cultural heroin." 

The senator defended himself by saying that the criticism came prior to Trump's presidency, so he changed his mind after finding that the two were politically aligned. "I was wrong about Donald Trump. I thought he wasn't going to be a good president and he turned out to be a great president. (...) When you're wrong about something you have to change your mind and be honest with people about it," he told Brett Baier. 

Vance also has a reputation for being very vocal when it comes to defending his viewpoints, leading Politico to call him "radical" and the "centerpiece of the new right", which potentially opens the door for the Biden campaign to focus their energy on tarnishing Vance's reputation and for the moment reserving harsh criticism against Trump, the recent survival of an assassination attempt.