Surge of Hispanic support swings toward Republican party in two key States

Republicans are gaining ground among Hispanic voters in two key states ahead of the presidential election. A poll conducted by the American Principles Project (APP) revealed that in a head-to-head matchup, Donald Trump and Joe Biden would be tied in Arizona, while in the case of Nevada, Biden would lead by just two points.

"These are two of the seven swing states in these elections that could define the Presidency and Hispanics are key to deciding the results in these two states. What we see is that Trump and Biden are tied in these two states, which is a problem for Biden because he needs massive support from Hispanics to win in those states," explained director of APP's Hispanic Engagement Area in a conversation with VOZ Media.

"Hispanics are dissatisfied with social policies"

In that sense, Aguilar explained that Hispanics expressed their disagreement with Joe Biden's social and economic policies. For example, 60% of respondents said they support measures to prevent men from competing in women's sports, 57% support banning gender reassignment surgeries for children under 18, and 64% support the requirement of schools to notify parents if their child begins to identify as transgender.

"Something we saw is that Hispanics are dissatisfied with the social and cultural policies of the Biden Administration and the Democrats. A very large majority, in both states, oppose children being taught gender ideology in schools. Furthermore, they say that the Democratic Party focuses too much on racial issues," Aguilar said.

The data becomes known at a time when Biden is making efforts to regain the support of Hispanics. Just this week in Arizona, the president presented "Latinos with Biden," an initiative with which he is trying to regain the Hispanic vote in the state. The current tenant of the White House acknowledged that he needs this group to win the elections.

“I need them back,” the Democratic president insisted during the event with Hispanics in Arizona, according to statements collected by The Guardian.

But this is not the only survey that shows the change in Hispanic support for Democrats. The Blue Party Advantage Among Hispanic Adults and Adults Ages 18-29 has decreased almost 20 points in the last three years, as revealed by a Gallup poll which detailed that right now, in the middle of an election year, Democrats have only a modest advantage among Hispanics compared to the historical support that this group has given them.

These shifts in the party affiliation of key subgroups provide the demographic backstory for how Democrats went from enjoying significant leads over Republicans between 2012 and 2021, to slight deficits in 2022 and 2023.