Concern in the Trump campaign: Biden takes the lead in a national poll thanks to independents

Amid a growing rebound in former President Donald Trump's popularity in election polls, Joe Biden finally has reason to celebrate: a Quinnipiac poll of registered voters found that the Democratic president would beat the Republican leader by 6 points in a head-to-head matchup.

According to the study, Biden has a lead over Trump of 50 to 44 percent when the two remain alone on the ballot.

However, in a hypothetical five-candidate general election matchup that includes independent and Green Party candidates, Biden would have 39% of the votes compared to Trump with 37%.

The independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. would be around 14%, independent candidate Cornel West would receive 3%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein would receive 2%.

The current survey shows clear progress for Joe Biden compared to the Quinnipiac University survey of December 20, 2023, when in the hypothetical confrontation between the two main candidates Biden obtained 47% support and Trump 46%, practically a technical tie.

In that sense, independent voters are the ones who are tipping the balance in favor of the Democratic candidate, who has 52% support while Trump receives 40%.

Likewise, women are also considerably more supportive of Biden than Trump(58-36 percent).

Nikki Haley tops Trump in direct confrontation with Biden

The Quinnipiac poll also shows that former UN ambassador Nikki Haley could beat Joe Biden in a head-to-head matchup thanks to her popularity among independents.

However, in a hypothetical confrontation of five candidates, Haley does worse than former President Trump's performance due to her unpopularity among Republicans.

In a matchup between Biden and Haley, the former South Carolina governor is receiving 47% of respondents' support against Biden's 42% support.

The poll shows that among independents, Haley beats Biden by a 53-47 percent margin.

However, according to the poll, Haley would not win the election in a hypothetical five-candidate matchup.

Biden would receive 36% of the vote, Haley 29% and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. would be supported by 21% of voters. West and Stein would not change their electoral base, garnering 3% and 2% of the support of registered voters respectively.

This data can be explained by the fact that Donald Trump has a noticeably better performance than Haley among Republicans. While Trump has more than 90% support in a matchup against Biden, Haley barely reaches 79%. This flight of voters would look for an alternative among independents, explained Tim Malloy, a poll analyst at Quinnipiac University.

“Are the winds of war swirling in the sands of the Middle East? As American troops take deadly fire from terrorist proxies, the conflict footprint is broadening and with it, the concerns of a large majority of voters are solidifying,” Malloy said.

Americans are very concerned about a war in the Middle East

The study also showed Americans' interest in several important issues ahead of the elections.

The clearest is about the heightened tensions in the Middle East, with more than 84% of Americans concerned (with 41% very concerned and 43% somewhat concerned) about the United States being drawn into a war in the Middle East.

However, despite being the issue with the broadest consensus, foreign policy is not among voters' main concerns.

In fact, the most important issues vary depending on the political inclination of the voters.

Among Republicans, the most important issues are immigration (38 percent), the economy (29 percent) and preserving democracy in the United States (12 percent). Meanwhile, among Democrats, preserving democracy in the United States is the most important issue (39 percent), followed by the economy (12 percent).

No other issue reaches double digits of relevance among Democrats.