What to know about the Kentucky gubernatorial election

Kentucky is preparing to elect another governor in what promises to be the closest election of 2023. The Bluegrass State is one of three rarities in the country to have Democratic governors in deeply Republican states, along with Kansas and Louisiana. On this occasion, Andy Beshear will try to retain the governorship against Daniel Cameron, classified by many as one of the Republicans with the most future projections.

Kentuckians will go to the polls on Tuesday, November 7, to choose the man who will govern them for the next four years, Democrat Beshear or Republican Cameron.

Well-defined strategies

The nature of the election is as follows: while the incumbent tried to focus the election on state problems and highlight the achievements of the current administration, the challenger tried to ensure that there was no distinction between his opponent and Joe Biden. Beshear even accused Cameron of trying to "confuse people" and "make them think this is the race for the presidency."

Beshear, who has a habit of winning very close elections, toured a traditionally Republican state trying to distance himself as much as possible from national politics. There's a reason for this, and according to POLITICO's Steven Shepard, "people here (Kentucky) do like Beshear back. But they really dislike the president."

To reinforce that message, he sought to emphasize local issues, such as the reconstruction of counties that were recently devastated by floods and the state unemployment rate, appealing to the working classes who tend to have Republican preferences. He even brought along Rocky Adkins, a historic local politician who happens to be very popular with this group.

"The other side’s trying to make this a race about Washington, D.C. I don’t think that’s going to work at all because of the job performance from this governor. He’s well-liked. He’s produced. He’s gotten results. He’s done it with common sense," Adkins said in an interview.

On the other side is Cameron, who, if he wins, would become the first African-American Republican governor in Kentucky since Reconstruction. Identified as a rising Republican star by Donald Trump himself and in perfect harmony with Mitch McConnell, he will seek to turn the state red again.

Knowing that his rival's approval ratings are good, the Republican strategy is to nationalize the election as much as possible, ensuring that voters cannot distinguish Beshear from Biden in a photograph.

"The national polarization of politics has become a major challenge for down-ballot candidates whose chances of standing apart from their partisan labels have rapidly dwindled. Fewer and fewer governors over time run states that vote for the opposite party in presidential elections," Shepard said.

His campaign was based on crime, taxes, and making life more affordable for Kentucky families, while at the same time, he devoted a lot of space to education, an issue that has resonated with other Republicans across the country.

Who is Daniel Cameron?

Cameron, 37, is the first African-American attorney general in state history and caught the nation's attention during the 2020 Republican National Convention. Although he arrived at the podium as a virtual stranger, he made the most of his moment and gave one of the most memorable speeches of the day.

"I think often about my ancestors who struggled for freedom. And as I think of those giants and their broad shoulders, I also think about Joe Biden, who says, if you aren't voting for me, 'you ain't black.' Who argued that Republicans would put us 'back in chains.' Who says there is no 'diversity' of thought in the Black community. Mr. Vice President, look at me, I am Black. We are not all the same, sir. I am not in chains. My mind is my own. And you can't tell me how to vote because of the color of my skin," he said at the time.

After the speech, many analysts saw him as the next rising Republican star, so he was encouraged to enter the governor race, which he confirmed on May 11, 2022. The former president's quick endorsement positioned him as the favorite for the primaries.

Trump referred to him as a "young star" who has done an "outstanding" young star job as attorney general, for which he earned his "complete and total support." Cameron based his campaign on his history in office, particularly in defending freedom in the face of the Biden-Beshar agenda, fighting the opioid epidemic, stopping critical race theory in schools, prioritizing the right to life, opposing ESG criteria, and being tough on crime.

Who is Andy Beshar?

After many years as a lawyer, Beshar entered politics in 2015 and became state attorney general thanks to the 2,000 votes by which he surpassed Republican Whitney Westerfield.

After four years in office, Beshear managed to win the governorship in 2019, narrowing the difference in counties where Trump swept in 2016 and even had the luxury of turning several points on the electoral map blue. He defeated incumbent Matt Bevin by 0.37 percentage points, flipping 11 counties from the 2015 election. The following formula marked his victory: significant differences in large cities, victories in key suburbs and a not-very-large difference in rural counties.

His political agenda did not differ much from that of Democrats nationally, as he is pro-abortion, against charter schools and encouraged closures during the pandemic. However, he is not in favor of restricting the Second Amendment.

Could Kentucky elect a future president?

"If Beshear wins, he instantly will become part of the ’28 discussion. A young, charismatic Democrat who won twice in a deep red state? There will be a great deal of chatter," David Axelrod told POLITICO, so if he is at least right about the Democrat's intentions, the state could be securing the next presidential candidate.

In the same situation is Cameron, whose age and life story could make him a tremendous Republican attraction in the coming years, whether in the Senate, as a running mate or even as a presidential candidate.

"He is an all-star. Interestingly enough, an African-American Republican. This is the kind of guy, just like Tim Scott, that would drive Barack Obama crazy because he doesn’t talk about everything that’s going wrong in America. He talks about all the opportunities there are in America. And he’s a good example of it," McConnell said of Cameron.