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Trump's 'polarizing effect' is the key to his greatest victories and defeats

"As president and head of the party, Trump regularly boasted of his record of endorsement victories (...) That reputation has been badly damaged since 2016, especially in the wake of this month's midterm elections."

Donald Trump

(Gage Skidmore/ Flickr)

Published by
Verónica Silveri Pazos

2016 was the first year in which loyal GOP voters were able to decide among a "crowded field of Republican candidates for the party's presidential nomination." Despite leading in the polls, Donald Trump, came in second place, behind Senator Ted Cruz and slightly ahead of Marco Rubio . According to Philip Bump, in The Washington Post :

Trump rebounded quickly, winning the New Hampshire primary with ease and then beginning to line up enough primary and convention victories to secure the nomination. Finally, he won the presidency (...) As president and head of the party, Trump regularly bragged about his record of endorsement wins (...) That reputation has been badly damaged since 2016, especially in the wake of this month's midterm elections, where his party was almost assured of winning anyway.

Trump's victories and defeats

- 2016 Election: Trump won support in 39 of 54 contested GOP presidential nomination fights that year. In the general election, he won the presidency over Hillary Clinton. But he lost the popular vote by 2.9 million ballots. Republicans also saw their majority in the House of Representatives shrink by minus six votes and lost two seats in the Senate.

- Elections 2018: Trump managed to give them victory to 130 of his candidates. Most of the primary candidates endorsed by the former president won their election (35 out of 37), but his candidates won office in slightly more than half of their fights in the generals (56 out of 95). His party lost more than 40 seats in the House of Representatives, but won two in the Senate.

- 2020 Election: Part of the "GOP was determined to write off Trump challengers in the 2020 party primaries," notes Philip Bump. However, its candidates in the primaries won in 117 of the 121 elections. In the overall, they won 142 of 182. But the most important race that year was his own, in which Trump again lost the popular vote. His party also lost control of the Senate, although it gained 14 seats in the House.

2022, the decisive year

Aiming to announce his 2024 presidential bid, Trump made nearly 500 endorsements for this year's midterms. Candidates backed by the former president won 224 of the 241 primaries and 208 of the 254 were victorious in the general elections. However, Bump notes in The Post that "the GOP failed to meet expectationsas he failed to win back the Senate and barely won a majority in the House of Representatives (...) In the close races of 2022, Trump may have hurt some of the candidates he endorsed."

Research released after the 2018 midterms revealed that the former president "had a downward drag on the candidates he endorsed," claiming that rallies bearing his name drove Democrats to the polls in greater numbers.

Bump points out with special relevance "its polarizing effect on the electorate". "Trump's position with the GOP, could be the worst possible: very effective at getting their candidates to win primaries by talking to their base, but ineffective at getting those candidates to win in November," i.e., in a general election. He claims that the former president is largely supported by Republicans who align with him, but probably often hurts his candidates when voters are not as radical or less sympathetic to his discourse.

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