The 'Cheney effect' is not desired by Democrats: it would take votes away from Biden and not from Trump

Donald Trump gets good news even as his enemies try to bring him down. Congresswoman Liz Cheney pledged to do "whatever it takes" to keep the former president from returning to the Oval Office after being soundly defeated in the Republican primary in Wyoming. This endeavor could lead her to compete in the 2024 presidential election.

However, a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll noted that Cheney's candidacy could have the opposite effect than desired by the still Republican, and further boost Donald Trump's chances of victory. The poll, conducted after the congresswoman's landslide in Wyoming, found that Cheney would take votes away from Biden and not Trump if she were to run.

According to the poll, if an election were held today, a head-to-head matchup between Trump and Biden would result in a 46-42% Democratic victory. However, the presence of Cheney as an independent candidate in a three-way race would benefit the former president, who would lead Biden by no less than eight points (40-32%). In that scenario, Liz Cheney would be left with only 11% of the vote.

Cheney is loved by voters... of a different party

Liz Cheney has not yet unveiled how she will carry out her plans to do "whatever it takes" to stop Trump's re-election. It seems that the idea of running as an independent candidate would have the opposite effect to that desired by her and the Democrats. Another option would be to compete for the Republican nomination for the White House. Cheney has the support of the Bush family and Democratic voter sympathies thanks to his opposition to Trump and his push for impeachment against the former president.

In this regard, 59% of Democratic voters have a favorable opinion of Cheney, compared to 18% who express an unfavorable one. Interestingly, this same tiny figure also reveals the percentage of Republican voters who have a favorable opinion of her, versus a very large 61% who view her unfavorably.

The strength of Donald Trump

The Trump-Cheney dichotomy came at a time when the vast majority of candidates supported by the former president emerge victorious in the primaries. On the contrary, those who bet on his prosecution (impeachment) were swept at the polls.

In the last primary election, the Florida primary, all candidates endorsed by Donald Trump won. The former president is posting incredible victorious endorsement rates, with no less than 92% of his candidates winning, 34 percentage points higher than in 2018.