2022 Midterms: Republicans may take control of Congress

There are 86 days left until the mid-term elections. At this moment, what are the polls predicting?

House of Representatives

The main change expected in the 118th U.S. Congress vs. the current 117th is the possible change of majority in the House of Representatives. The Democratic Party currently has 222 representatives vs. 213 for the Republicans (435 seats - 218 are required for a majority)

Thus, according to the forecast made by Real Clear Politics, the Republicans have a projected 222 seats as opposed to the Democrats' 181. This forecast has remained constant over the last two months.

With 218 seats, the Republican Party would assume majority in the House, so 222, albeit slim, would give them a clear controlling majority moving forward. In addition, according to RCP, there are 32 other elections that are too close to call to attribute the seat to one party or the other.

270 to win forecast based on polls looks like this: 220 representatives for the Republican Party, and 201 for the Democratic Party, with 14 seats to be allocated. The biennial election for representatives from all 435 Congressional Districts will take place on November 8, 2022.

Under these conditions, FiveThirtyEight gives a 20% chance that the Democratic Party will hold the majority in the House of Representatives, leaving the other 80% chance of victory open for the Republican Party.

Senate

The situation is different in the Senate. Only one third of the Senate is renewed; in particular, the third class of the Senate (34 seats) will be contested. There are 34 Democratic senators, plus 2 independents, and 29 Republicans who are not running for office.

According to 538 estimates, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Georgia) has lost his lead over Republican candidate Herschel Walker. Adam Laxalt will likely lose to Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, but Cortez's lead is slight and too close to call.

On the other hand, Republican Mehmet Oz could lose the Senate seat still held by Patrick Toomey in Pennsylvania, who will not be running for re-election next term. 538 gives John Fetterman of the Democratic Party a better chance of winning.

So, RCP says that each party has 46 senators, with 8 races too close to call for either party. 270 to win assigns 49 senators to the GOP and 47 to the Democrats. 538 is betting on a tie in the number of senators (50-50), but since Vice President Kamala Harris holds the deciding vote in a tie, 538 give Democrats a 60% chance of controlling the Senate. However, a change in just one of the contested races may give the GOP the slim majority needed to control the senate.

Governors

There are currently 36 states running for election, some of them with aspirations to run in the 2024 presidential elections. Ron DeSantis is the Republican governor of Florida. He faces Charlie Crist, whom he leads by 12 points (54-42%); 538 gives his victory as almost certain (a 94% probability). Florida, historically and now, will be one of the swing states in the upcoming presidential election. In California, Democrat Gavin Newsom is 30 points ahead of the leading Republican candidate.

Generally speaking, polls give wins to candidates who are governors or of the same party as the governor, with one recent and notable exception: Arizona GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Ann Lake. Lake was registered as a Democrat until 2012, when she switched parties. She was an anchorwoman until 2021, when she made the leap to politics. Now she runs for governor of Arizone, with Donald Trump's support.

Arizona's current governor is Republican Doug Ducey, who will not run for re-election. The polling average according to 538 is a minimal lead for Democrat Katie Hobbs of 1.7 points (49.9-48.4%).