The Marco Rubio miracle: a free Cuba and Venezuela?

Finally, Donald Trump made Marco Rubio official as his nominee to take over as US Secretary of State. His nomination and imminent confirmation by a Senate now controlled by Republicans is already, in itself, historic: Rubio will become the Hispanic who has gone the furthest in US government and the first to assume the post of Secretary of State.

Needless to say, it is a source of pride as a Hispanic. He is the manifestation of the American dream. But it is also a resounding triumph for those of us who believe in freedom, both in the United States and in the rest of the hemisphere.

Some radical factions of the MAGA world have tried to portray Rubio as a neocon. They are far from the truth. Rubio, one of the vanguard figures of populist, common-sense conservatism within the Party, is far from being a driver of conflict in the world. Quite the opposite. Like Trump was in his first administration, Rubio is here to put an end to tensions that today are fatally disrupting entire regions.

Rubio is not a neocon. He is, rather, a kind of Jacksonian hawk, in the best sense of the expression. Sovereigntist, strong, doesn't provoke new wars, doesn't pretend to 'build nations', no overly-moralizing, but hits hard when he has to. In other words, as Rubio himself said in his statement: "Peace through strength."

And so was the first Trump administration. Pacifist, but not isolationist, not dogmatic. He hit enemies hard, didn't start a single conflict, and kept peace in the world by instilling respect and respecting loyalties. After Biden's 4 years, and comparing them to the first Trump Administration, it is clear: What causes wars? Weakness and fragility in U.S. leadership. What prevents wars? A tough, steadfast, deterrent and loyal United States. I emphasize: peace through strength.

In nominating him, Trump said of Rubio, "He will be a great worker for our nation, a great friend to our allies and a courageous warrior who will never back down from our enemies."

And what enemies? Beyond the obvious ones pinpointed by the administration-in-training, China and Iran, Marco Rubio has made his career by being up front with the hemisphere's tyrannies, especially Cuba and Venezuela. As the son of Cuban immigrants, his passion for Cuban freedom runs through his veins.

Now, Rubio has a unique opportunity to achieve what would be a miracle. The Marco Rubio miracle. Cuba's freedom - and Venezuela's as well - is at his disposal, as the great incoming triumph of the new Trump administration.

The formula conceived by Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez at the time has changed. Venezuela no longer depends on Cuba, but the other way around. That is, if Cuba falls today, Venezuela does not fall. However, if Venezuela falls, there is no doubt that the Díaz-Canel regime would not be able to sustain itself without the financial and technical backing of the Bolivarian Revolution.

After the historic milestone of July 28 in Venezuela, María Corina Machado dealt the Chavista regime a lethal blow, which has left it at an unprecedented level of fragility. The crisis is real, as several internal sources have confirmed to this media outlet. The drift of delegitimization has not only put Maduro in an uncomfortable position before his regional allies, but also before his own local allies. The military world today knows first hand that Maduro is the most despised and least legitimate man in all of Venezuela.

As sources have also commented to this media outlet, these internal crises and tensions have been accentuated after the triumph of Donald Trump and the appointments to his cabinet. It all started with Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor - a strong man who has denounced at various times the links of the Chavista regime with the Iranian theocracy.

Maduro was emboldened during the Biden era, due to the mediocre policy of concessions and relief offered by the Democratic administration - lifting of sanctions, releasing the 'narcosobrinos' and Alex Saab. There is no doubt that Maduro was betting on an extension of these policies. This will no longer be possible.

In 2019, when a unique opportunity arose in Venezuela with Juan Guaidó's interim government, with Trump in the White House, the regional context was ideal; but unfortunately the local leadership, in Caracas, was mediocre. In 2024, with Biden in the White House, the regional context has been unfavorable; but Venezuelans chose María Corina Machado and Edmundo González as leaders.

With the conjunction of a favorable regional context and a local leadership to match, 2025 is shaping up to be a promising year for the hemisphere. Given the internal tensions in the regime, a couple of words from the new administration are enough for some officials in Venezuela to make decisions. Marco Rubio is emerging as the man to achieve the miracle - and, it must be said, without the United States getting involved in a single conflict.