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Commercial crude oil inventories rise by 900,000 barrels, exceeding expectations

The EIA reports an unexpected increase due to slower refinery operations, while Washington continues to draw crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve—now at its lowest level since 1982—and the Gulf region resumes exporting more oil.

Oil refinery in Los Angeles

Oil refinery in Los AngelesAFP.

Carlos Dominguez
Published by
Carlos Dominguez

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by about 900,000 barrels last week, compared with a forecast of a 710,000-barrel decline according to a survey of analysts by Bloomberg cited by AFP, according to data released Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The increase is mainly due to a slowdown in refinery operating rates, which last week operated at 92.5% of capacity, compared to 94% in the previous period. This is the lowest rate since late May, which has reduced demand for crude oil for processing and allowed commercial inventories to build up.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve dontinues to decline due to war in Middle East

At the same time, the U.S. continues to draw barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to mitigate supply disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East. Last week, approximately 800,000 barrels were withdrawn from these reserves.

In March, Washington committed to gradually releasing 172 million barrels of the 415 million that made up the SPR at the end of February, as part of a coordinated effort by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to mobilize 400 million barrels globally.

SPR at its lowest level since 1982

The latest available data puts the SPR at about 284.6 million barrels for the week ending Sept. 18, nearly 31% less than the 415 million barrels recorded at the end of February and the lowest level since 1982.

The Department of Energy announced on Tuesday that it will lend, through a swap, up to 40 million additional barrels to energy companies—the final tranche of the 172 million committed—amid high gasoline and diesel prices.

A tight market with signs of supply recovery

Despite the buildup of commercial inventories, the market remains sensitive to disruptions in the Middle East. Crude oil exports from Persian Gulf producers rebounded in September to 16.3 million barrels per day, the highest level since the war began in February, though still below pre-conflict volumes.

On Tuesday, Brent closed at $102.59 per barrel (−2.6%) and WTI at $89.38 (−3.5%), pressured by the recovery in Saudi supply and the partial reopening of the East-West pipeline. On Wednesday, WTI rebounded and closed at $90.49 (+1.2%), while Brent recovered part of the previous day's decline and traded in the range of $97 to $99.

Between restored supply and geopolitical risk

Market analysts, including research from banks such as Goldman Sachs, have said crude could rise to $120 a barrel if attacks on shipping in the region intensify. If exports return to normal, they say, the market could fall back toward $80.

The EIA has said in recent reports that, if the planned exchange program is completed, the SPR could gradually recover to about 385 million barrels by the end of 2027. That would still be well below the more than 700 million barrels the reserve once held in earlier decades, and below the 415 million barrels it held at the end of February 2026.

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