OPEC+ announces increase in oil production by 547,000 barrels per day

Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other OPEC+ oil-producing countries decided Sunday to increase their production quotas, amplifying the strategy of reconquering market shares. The eight energy ministers decided on an increase "in production of 547,000 barrels per day in September 2025 relative to the August production level," an OPEC statement said.

This increase is already anticipated at current crude prices, according to statements to AFP by Giovanni Staunovo of UBS bank, who does not foresee turbulence at the reopening of the markets on Monday.

Barrel price far from all-time highs after Ukraine invasion

The price of Brent, the global benchmark, currently moves around $70, far from the highs of $120 reached in the spring of 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) now prefer to concentrate on recovering market shares.

OPEC+ decided a few months ago to increase production quotas after a long battle with falling prices by decreasing supply through several production cuts. One of those cuts, 2.2 million barrels per day, agreed to by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, is completely nullified with the increase scheduled for September.

Uncertain medium-term horizon

The horizonfor the coming months is more uncertain, "our baseline scenario bets that the group will mark a pause in its increases," advances Warren Patterson, of ING. Prices held up better than observers had anticipated in April, when the production quota hike cycle began.

Between March and June, the actual increase in production was lower than the quotas announced in the same period, Staunovo recently highlighted in a note. But "the market should register a significant (oil supply) surplus from the fourth quarter of this year, and OPEC+ will need to ensure that it does not exacerbate this surplus," Patterson opined.