"You just can't look at this economy and say this is a bad economy," were the words this weekend of James Carville, strategist responsible for the campaign that brought Bill Clinton to the presidency in 1992. Most Americans disagree: 70% believe the administration's policies have "hurt" the economy, according to a Financial Times poll.
Despite admitting the damage caused by the rising cost of living, Carville, promoter of the historic phrase, "It's the economy, stupid," had no answer to Bill Maher's question on "Real Time with Bill Maher": How can voters be convinced that the economy is doing well?
House Democrats do seem to have reached an answer, which in Carville's words, might be: "It's Bidenomics, stupid." According to a senior official from the party in a conversation with Axios, representatives decided to stop using the term "Bidenomics" in a meeting last summer. Instead, they began employing "People Over Politics," a slogan that the House Democratic Policy and Communications Committee explains as follows:
The American people need a government that protects working families, not big corporations. Democrats are taking on special interests and working For The People, focused on Lower Costs, Better Paying Jobs, and Safer Communities.
According to Axios, two key party fundraising organizations have made the same decision. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the House Majority PAC stopped using it on social media and in press releases.
The administration began promoting the word in June, "the word of the day, word of the week, word of the month, word of the year here at the White House," as deputy press secretary Olivia Dalton said at the time. Although it can still be seen on billboards and posts, even Joe Biden himself seems to be removing it from his vernacular. From June through October, he mentioned it 101 times in his speeches. From November to now, he has not uttered it even once. This is according to an NBC News investigation into his speeches last month, and a review of his speeches so far in December shows that the word has not come back.
Annual inflation just fell to its lowest level in more than two and a half years.
Grocery inflation is at its lowest level in over two years.
We’ve created 14 million jobs and kept unemployment under 4% for 21 months.
That’s Bidenomics in action.
— President Biden (@POTUS) December 1, 2023
This is how you defend and celebrate #Bidenomics pic.twitter.com/NEsqXoNHez
— Andy Ostroy (@AndyOstroy) December 1, 2023
The problem, per the surveys
Thirty-five percent of Americans believe they are in worse economic condition than last year. This was revealed by the annual domestic economy study by the Federal Reserve (Fed), in what was the worst result since the changeover took place. Compared to two years ago, 43% of Americans said their financial situation had deteriorated when surveyed by ABC News and the Washington Post.
The latest Harvard Caps/Harris report reveals that 58% of Americans think the U.S. economy is "weak." The future prospects are not better either: the same percentage of Americans believe that the economy is on the "wrong track," while only 35% believe it is headed in the right direction.
This is one of the issues that most worries voters. For example, in the same survey, it appears twice in the top three concerns of the most serious problems facing the country: in first as "price increases / inflation" (for 30% of respondents) and in third as "economy and jobs" (24%). The second-place issue was immigration (25%).
This economic pessimism is punishing Biden in the polls for the 2024 general election. This, along with illegal immigration, was the main reason why Donald Trump led the Democrat by nine points in a Washington Post and ABC poll.
While the state of the economy is hurting the current president's reputation, it is elevating the candidate who is expected to win the GOP nomination: 59% of voters told The New York Times and Siena College that Trump would do a better job of economic management, regardless of who they said they would vote for. This also translates to political parties: 49% trust the Republican Party more, while just 28% trust the Democrats, according to NBC News.
The Democratic contradiction
A former advisor to Barack Obama, David Axelrod, seemed to find a solution to the contradiction among prevailing Democratic thinking: the economy is doing well, but Americans don't understand it. "Folks are seeing the economy through the prism of prices and mortgage interest rates and there is a post-pandemic unease about everything," he told the Washington Post. He also recommended discarding "Bidenomics":
So branding the economy with your name seems like a bad strategy right now.
The explanation from researchers Peter St. Onge and E.J. Antoni is simpler: "Facts are stubborn things." In an article shared by The Heritage Foundation, they cited the rise in prices, which has outpaced wages, the increase in mortgage rates, as well as the difficulty of buying and renting homes. In summary:
People are feeling the pain of “Bidenomics,” of the government spending, borrowing and printing too much money.
