Donald Trump is the most important man within the Republican Party. No one can be left on the sidelines. Either you are with him, or you are against him. But the truth is that being on his side brings a guarantee of near total success in the primaries. To be a little more specific, a 92% guarantee of success, which is the winning percentage of candidates supported by him this year.
The primaries that have determined which candidates will compete in the November 8 elections for governor, senator or member of the House of Representatives are over. In 2022, there has been 222 candidates in the primaries, 204 of whom have emerged victorious.
Against the Republican establishment
On many occasions, their candidates have prevailed over powerful local establishments and incumbents. This is the case of Don Bolduca, a retired general who is considered a very conservative candidate and who will have a hard time being a senator in a state as blue as New Hampshire. Polls, at the moment, show Democrat Maggie Hassan is more than six points ahead. All of this was known to registered Republican voters, but they opted for him, anyway.
Bolduca was opposed by a candidate backed by the state's powerful Republican machine. Chuck Morse, president of the New Hampshire Senate, had the support of Governor Chris Sunuru, who handily won the primary to be the candidate for a fourth term. It is just one example of many. Gioff Diehl Karoline Leavitt... the list goes on and on.
The impeachment 10
A particular case in point is that of 'the impeachment 10': the Republican members of the House of Representatives who voted to impeach Donald Trump. Fate has not been very kind to them. Anthony Gonzalez, Adam Kinzinger, Fred Upton and John Katko withdrew. Tom Rice, Peter Meijer, Jamie Herrera Beutler and Liz Cheney, leader of the Republican opposition to Donald Trump, lost. Only Dan Newhouse and David Valadao won their respective primaries. But Valadao was not opposed by a Donald Trump candidate.
Trump's power to appeal to the Republican base is such that in 54 of the primaries no alternative candidate to the one he endorsed dared to contest the election, according to one analysis by the BBC.
Governors, senators and representatives
Three of the 20 candidates endorsed by the former president to lead the Republican Party in gubernatorial elections have failed: David Perdue (Georgia), Janice McGeachin (Idaho) and Charles Herbster (Nebraska). The other 17 have won.
Of the candidates endorsed by Trump to carry the Republican Party in the Senate, one has withdrawn (Sean Parnell, Pennsylvania). Two others have lost, but to other candidates also supported by him.
As for the House of Representatives, all Trump-endorsed candidates in Texas, Indiana, Ohio, Nebraska, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Arkansas, Arkansas, Alabama, California, Iowa, Montana, Mississippi, Virginia, Colorado, Illinois, Oklahoma, Utah, Arizona, Kansas, Missouri, Wyoming, Wisconsin, Florida and Louisiana have won.
Signs of weakness?
With that ability to connect with the Republican base, Donald Trump has gained enormous power within the Republican Party. However, there are signs that this influence may be starting to weaken. He gave a rally in Ohio on Sunday, and the turnout was quite low.
Enjoy this headline for Trump's Ohio rally: "Trump's thin crowd." #TrumpRally pic.twitter.com/7GP20TnywK
- Mike Sington (@MikeSington) September 18, 2022
Popularity among all voters continues to hover around 40%, although the facts show that among Republicans he continues to have a lot of pull.
