Trudeau in serious trouble: he loses a key ally in the lower house and his government falters

Politics in Canada took a major turn this week after New Democratic Party (NPD) leader Jagmeet Singh, decided to terminate the agreement it had with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party of Canada. This move, which could destabilize the government, comes at a key moment for the country, and threatens to force early elections.

The end of a strategic alliance

Since the 2021 elections, Trudeau has governed with the crucial support of the NPD in the Lower House of Parliament. This agreement, which guaranteed the stability of his government in confidence votes, was key to the maintenance of the Liberal leadership. Now, however, Singh decided to break the alliance, explaining that the Liberal Party has neglected the needs of the people and calling Trudeau "too weak" to prevent the Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre from winning a victory in the next election.

"The Liberals have abandoned the people," Singh said in a video posted on social media. "They don't deserve another chance from Canadians," he added.

Challenge for the Liberals

This political development puts Trudeau in a precarious position. The NDP support deal had given the Liberals some wiggle room in Parliament, and its demise puts at risk the government's ability to implement its policies and respond to the economic problems affecting Canadians.

Currently, the Liberals have 154 of 338 seats in the House of Commons, meaning they cannot pass legislation on their own. The Conservatives, led by Poilievre, are the next largest party with 119 seats.

Pressure from the conservative opposition

Singh's decision comes against a backdrop of mounting pressure from the opposition. The leader of the Conservative Party, had publicly urged Singh to withdraw his support for Trudeau, thus intensifying pressure on the Liberal government. The breakup of the alliance comes at a time when popular dissatisfaction with the Trudeau government is on the rise.

The most recent polls reveal a worrying electoral picture for the Liberals. Poilievre's Conservative Party leads with 43% of voter support, while Trudeau's Liberal Party barely reaches 25%. This sizable lead for the Conservatives reflects a significant shift in public opinion and poses serious challenges for Trudeau, who could face defeat in the event of an early election.