Mexico's separation of powers at risk: deputies endorse AMLO's dangerous judicial reform in Commission

It is a fact: the controversial judicial reform of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has already been endorsed in the Constitutional Points Commission of the Chamber of Deputies with 22 votes in favor and 17 against.

With this vote, which took place after an extensive seven-hour debate, the committee generally endorsed the draft opinion that would reform various articles of the Mexican Constitution in judicial matters, seeking to implement the election of ministers, magistrates and judges through popular vote.

"Consequently, the opinion that reforms various provisions of the Political Constitution of the United Mexican States in matters of the Federal Judiciary in all that has not been reserved is declared approved in general," said the president of the Constitutional Points Commission, Juan Ramiro Robledo, when he made the vote official.

However, several steps still remain for AMLO's dangerous judicial reform to be submitted to a vote in the plenary. First, according to the information provided by the board of directors, each of the 330 reservations presented by the different political groups represented in the commission must be addressed.

Only the PRI, the most representative and traditional party in Mexico, presented 106 reservations through six legislators.

Meanwhile, the approval of the commission generated the first protests in Mexico, with thousands of citizens and judicial branch workers taking to the streets to demand the cancellation of the reform.

What is the judicial reform about and why is it so controversial?

Part of AMLO's reform, endorsed in committee, contemplates the total renewal of the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation (SCJN), half of the circuit magistrates and judges next year.

The bill also seeks to reduce the number of Supreme Court justices from 11 to 9, reducing their term from 15 to 12 years and also seeks to establish a salary cap.

However, the most important reform, which generates most of the criticism, is the election of ministers, magistrates and judges through popular vote; a form of election that is replicated in very few countries in the world, such as Bolivia and the United States.

Critics point out that in Mexico such a reform could directly affect the separation of powers and confidence in judicial institutions, weakening the rule of law and further eroding legal certainty in a country where cartels use their reach and economic power to buy wills and influence elections to their advantage.

Some of the concerns are that, if the measure is approved, up to 900 judges, magistrates and ministers could be replaced in a single election which, moreover, could coincide with the election calendar for federal deputies.

In early May, Stanford Law School's Rule of Law Impact Lab and the Mexican Bar Association warned that AMLO's proposals "constitute a direct threat to judicial independence, violate international standards and undermine democracy in Mexico."

"A blow of that magnitude cannot be ignored," said Víctor Olé Peláez, president of the Mexican Bar Association. "This document will generate awareness of what the loss of judicial independence means for our freedoms."

"By politicizing the judiciary, the reform proposals would deny access to justice," said Amrit Singh, executive director of the Rule of Law Impact Lab at Stanford Law School.

"Instead of deciding cases impartially and acting as a check on abuse of power, judges would hand down rulings to please those with the most power and to win more votes. The reform initiatives would jeopardize the rights of minorities and the rule of law.

Likewise, the U.S. ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, also stated a clear position on judicial reform, warning that Mexican justice could be left completely vulnerable to politicization, corruption and control by drug cartels.

In particular, Salazar mentioned that AMLO's proposed reform could "make it easier for cartels and other malign actors to take advantage of inexperienced judges with political motivations," generating, in addition, economic and political "turbulence" for years to come.

Given this concern, the Mexican private sector also does not support AMLO's proposal, as they consider it virtually impossible for the economy not to suffer from such a broad level of reform, especially amid a steep drop in the Mexican peso, which lost its value by more than 11% since the last elections in June.

Markets in particular have reacted negatively to the constitutional reform. According to the newspaper El País, at least three global investment banks published separate reports warning about the high risk of investing in Mexico in the face of a more than likely approval.