Election Sunday in Panama: José Raúl Mulino, the candidate who promises to close off the Darien Gap to migrants, is leading the polls

Panama will vote this Sunday to form its national assembly and to elect its president for the next five years. This day comes after a campaign marked by several cases of corruption that removed the polls' favorite candidate from the race. Ricardo Martinelli, who was president from 2009 to 2014, is currently taking refuge in the Nicaraguan Embassy in Panama after he was convicted of money laundering.

Luckily for former President Martinelli, the Panamanian justice system approved the candidacy of his right-hand man, José Raúl Mulino, who was originally running as vice president. He is now running for president. The court's decision was given in extremis, but it was necessary since Mulino did not attend his party's primaries to run for president.

José Raúl Mulino, who was minister of public security and justice during Martinelli's administration, is doing just as well in the polls. He is estimated to win between 26-38% of the total votes. There are eight presidential candidates. Much of this success comes from Martinelli, who despite serious accusations of money laundering has strong popular support in Panama.

Martinelli, who was granted asylum at the Nicaraguan Embassy, regularly posts videos supporting Mulino. Prior to being disqualified by order of the Supreme Court of Panama, Martinelli was estimated to win around 40% of the vote. Martinelli won the support of voters by presenting himself as the candidate offering a path back to prosperity following a period of crisis and corruption under the social democratic administration of Laurentino Cortizo.

Following Mulino and Martinelli, the other candidates face a significant disadvantage according to the Planned Marketing surveys reported by La Prensa. Torrrijos, from the Popular Party, holds 16.7%. Rómulo Roux follows closely with 15.2%. Ricardo Lombana has garnered 12.9% of support. Finally, the candidate of the ruling party, José Gabriel Carrizo, is currently polling at 8.4%.

Closing the Darien Gap

During his campaign, José Raúl Mulino promised Panamanians that he would close Panama's southern border, the Darién Gap, due to the massive irregular migratory flows that cross it. The Darién region, populated by a dense jungle, is the meeting point between Central America and South America. Caravans of migrants cross through this area and travel north to head to the United States. The Panamanian government estimated that half a million people crossed the Darién Gap in 2023 at half. More than 110,000 of them were minors.

In mid-April, Mulino assured that he would put an end to this situation. “Panama is not a transit country,” Mulino said in statements reported by EFE. “We are going to close Darién and we are going to repatriate all of these people accordingly,” he added. "The United States border, instead of being in Texas, was moved to Panama."

Mulino did not go into detail about how to address the complexities of the region, which shares a border of over 165 miles with Colombia and is partly influenced by cartels and migrant smuggling groups. His opponents in the election criticized his proposal as unrealistic. Torrijos, the candidate closest to him in the polls, suggested that the issue stems from the broader instability in Latin America. Ricardo Lombana added that Mulino's claim is "unreal, migration, since humanity has existed, has not been stopped by walls or walls."