Brazil's moment of truth

Jair Bolsonaro or Lula da Silva. Brazil will decide on October 30th who will govern its future for the next four years. The current president, who is relying on good economic indicators and gestures towards the most disadvantaged, or the former president, who focused his campaign on the deaths during the Covid pandemic in the country, has promised a government "for the poor" and to defend social rights. With both candidates in a dead heat according to the polls, anything can happen.

According to the latest Datafolha poll, Lula arrives at the meeting with 49% of voting intentions, compared to 45% for his rival. Bolsonaro has staged a great comeback since the first polls, which gave him just 38% of the ballots, and predicted a comfortable victory for Lula with estimates of around 60%.

Technical tie

This electoral rally has tainted the campaigns during its second round, full of disqualifications, accusations and direct personal insults between both candidates. In addition to recalling Lula's imprisonment in the Petrobras case, the president focused his message on highlighting the economic achievements made by his government and its legislature, despite having suffered the pandemic crisis: GDP growth above IMF forecasts (2.8%), unemployment reduction (8.9%), a record number of active workers (more than 100 million) and the reduction of the inflation (7,2%).

These improvements have been passed on to the most disadvantaged population by increasing by 50% the Auxilio Brasil, a monthly allowance for the poor. Until now, it was one of the biggest frustrations of his team, the lack of perception of improvements in macroeconomic data on a day-to-day basis. In a radical turnaround from his message, the president managed to unlock $7.5 billion to be able to undertake this initiative and, incidentally, to give aid to truckers and cab drivers.

Reduction of crime

He has also boasted about the reduction in crime during his four years in power, especially so far in 2022. All of this, mixed with accusations of corruption against Lula, whom he refers to as a "thief", "friend of dictators" and even called him sexually impotent after he did not show up for a televised debate.

Lula´s, belligerent campaign

In the opposite camp, Lula has used an even more belligerent tone. In fact, Brazil's Superior Electoral Court banned the broadcasting of two electoral videos of his campaign. In the first, , by presenting out of context an old interview of the president, while in the second he accused him of being a pedophile for an expression of his referring to 14-year-old Venezuelan prostitutes.

In his campaign he has emphasized the rights of minorities, the LGTBI community and, above all, management with the poor at the center.