Trump's succession begins in the wake of the midterm debacle: From Vance's 'no' to the war to Rubio's silence, with DeSantis as a surprise guest following his victory in Florida

The Republican debacle in the midterms has accelerated a debate that did not seem urgent but is now pressing: Who will lead the GOP through the wilderness in the coming years?

Vice president, JD Vance, offered some reflections on the defeat that sound like a repositioning vis-à-vis the president in the war with Iran, which he blamed for the massacre suffered in the midterms. His main rival on paper, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has remained silent.

However, a rival has emerged for both of them, one whom many had written off after his disastrous 2024 primary campaign, which significantly damaged his image. The midterm election results have revived Ron DeSantis, whose leadership in Florida has been instrumental in ensuring that the Sunshine State remains the only one of the most populous states in the U.S. still in GOP hands following the midterm elections.

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Vance's strategic distancing

Vance, whose stance on Iran has always been cautious, but with signs of his dissatisfaction with the conflict itself, and especially with the endless drift it took on, as well as with the unconditional support for Israel. He was the head of negotiations with the regime's moderate faction, but his agreements were torpedoed, literally, by the radicals of the Revolutionary Guards.

So, in addition to his membership in the inner circle of the much-maligned administration, there is the failure in negotiations, in the eyes of American voters, these are two serious obstacles to him being the man to fix the mess that many Republicans point to as the reason for the White House's downfall.

Vance's move represents a distancing from Trump on this issue, a key factor in the defeat, though it is not the only factor that has had an impact. Following the midterm setback, the vice president has two years to try to demonstrate that he is a voice distinct from Trump's and showcase his own perspective, all while remaining loyal to a president who is unwilling to tolerate what he calls betrayals.

Rubio's silence

The second major front-runner, whether running solo (some polls show him leading Vance) or on a ticket with the vice president, remains silent. Marco Rubio has become Donald Trump's "jack-of-all-trades" meme, and has always been there when called upon during a term marked by an intense international agenda.

A staunch anti-communist, Rubio has proven himself an effective advocate for the Donroe doctrine in Latin America, and his messages to Europe warning of the dangers of wokeness and communism have drawn widespread applause from Republican voters. Like Vance, the fact that he is an active and important part of Trump's Cabinet may work against him in the primaries for the White House.

DeSantis's resurgence

Following the midterms, DeSantis has emerged as a strong contender. The governor of Florida, who was initially seen as Trump's main rival in the 2024 primaries, ran a disastrous campaign and also saw how every lawsuit filed against his rival during the Biden administration poured thousands of votes into his opponent's camp, weakening his chances. Curiously, the polls gave him a better chance of securing the nomination when he hadn't even made up his mind than when he finally entered the race.

However, DeSantis is reemerging after the midterms thanks to his key strengths: his governance and his ideological conviction. These two pillars have enabled him to turn Florida into the last major Republican stronghold following the debacle in Texas, the GOP's other key power base. His all-out fight against wokeness, his low-tax policy, his commitment to education, his defense of parental rights and his opposition to abortion have become national benchmarks.

The virtue of speaking plainly

One of DeSantis's greatest strengths is his clarity when speaking, without ambiguity. He has shown no ambiguity now either analyzing the defeat. The governor of Florida has emphasized that voters were treated like children, without acknowledging the impact of Trump's policies on them, especially on their wallets, something he refused to do:

"Some of these Republicans are saying, 'Oh, well, the gas, don't worry. It's no big deal.' Or they're trying to blame Biden. No, no. Listen, we've just got to be honest. Gas is higher. It hurts people, working-class people, and it's higher because of the Iran conflict. That's just the fact. If you can't admit that to voters, then you're gaslighting them, and they're not going to listen to you on other things."

DeSantis accused the senators of blocking the Trump agenda

However, while all fingers point exclusively at Trump for the debacle, an analysis of DeSantis revealed other culprits, whom he did not hesitate to name:

"I saw NO INDICATION that Republican senators were interested in doing conservative change! WHY haven't we done immigration, SHUT OFF H1B visas?! WHY haven't we CODIFIED Trump's immigration executive orders?! Why haven't we STRIPPED jurisdiction from the federal courts over deportation cases?! There's SO MANY THINGS we COULD HAVE DONE. THEY DIDN'T EVEN ATTEMPT IT.

They say, 'oh, if only we needed 50 votes we would've done it!' YOU DON'T HAVE 50 VOTES. You NEVER SHOWED you'd do conservative things, even with 50 votes! [RE: filibuster]...I NEVER saw an indication that they'd do it.

This midterm was a rebuke of the president and Congress... BUT, a LOT of our voters stayed home because they were FRUSTRATED with the LACK of productivity from Republicans in the House and Senate."

The long, arduous road ahead for the GOP

DeSantis also did not mince words when announcing the arduous path that awaits the GOP in the next two presidential elections, and he warned that key challenges, such as the confirmation of Justice Alito's replacement on the Supreme Court, will be out of reach for Republicans following last Tuesday's results.