Midterms: In which districts will the Hispanic vote be most decisive?

Although it was already key to Donald Trump's reelection in 2024, the Hispanic vote will be even more decisive in the upcoming midterms. In November, 39 million Latino voters, 5 million more than in the 2022 midterms, are expected to cast their ballots, accounting for 16% of the total, up 1 percentage point from two years ago. It is worth noting that they are also the youngest group of eligible voters, since a large number of the new voters are children of immigrants, born in the U.S., who have reached voting age.

Furthermore, there are an increasing number of districts where the majority depends directly on this community. In this article, we analyze the districts where the ballots cast by Latinos will be most decisive in determining which representative will hold the seat on their behalf starting in January.

Texas and California, the states with the most "Hispanic districts"

Texas and California are the states where the most districts hang in the balance due to the final Hispanic vote. Despite the dissatisfaction of the Latino community with the Trump administration, polls indicate that this ethnic group has not yet fully placed its trust in the Democrats, so there could be surprises, as happened in the last midterms when a "red wave" was expected but never materialized despite dissatisfaction with Joe Biden.

TX-28. With a Hispanic population of 87%, it is the district with the highest percentage of this community. The incumbent representative, Democrat Henry Cuellar, is comfortably leading his race against Republican Tano Tejerina. Cuellar overcame his issues with his party, in which Trump himself came to his defense, and refused to switch parties, much to the president's disappointment.

TX-15. With a Hispanic population of about 75%, Republican Mónica de la Cruz faces a challenge from Democrat Bobby Pulido. Polls currently show a virtual tie in this district, where Trump won by 18 points in the 2024 presidential election.

TX-34. Between 72% and 77% of the electorate in this district is Latino. Democrat Vicente Gonzalez is facing Republican Eric Flores in a race that is also too close to call. Trump won by 10 points in 2024.

TX-35. With Hispanics making up approximately 52% of its population, this district features two first-time candidates in a redistricting plan drawn up by the state's Republican-majority Legislature. Republican Carlos de la Cruz is running against Democrat Jhonny García in a key race for control of the House.

CA-22. With a Hispanic population ranging from 65 to 74 percent, California also has a significant Hispanic community in this district. The incumbent representative, Republican David Valadao, is tied with his Democratic rival Randy Villegas and faces Gavin Newsom's redistricting plan.

NM-2. With 54% of the population being Hispanic, Democrat Gabe Vasquez is fighting to hold his seat against conservative Greg Cunningham.

Other key districts due to their Hispanic population

In addition, the following districts should be taken into account due to the size of their Hispanic communities, even if Hispanics are not the majority:

CO-8. Hispanics, who make up between 28% and 30% of the total population, are the largest ethnic group. The GOP faces an uncertain outcome in its bid to retain the seat held by Gabe Evans. The Washington Post describes it as "one of the races most representative of working-class Latino neighborhoods in suburban and peri-urban areas."

AZ-6. Juan Ciscomani also faces an uphill battle in a district with a 21% Hispanic population.

FL-27. With a significant Hispanic population, particularly of Cuban descent, Maria Elvira Salazar (R). Although she starts with an advantage in retaining her seat, her clash with Donald Trump over immigration policy and dissatisfaction with the current administration have narrowed her lead in the polls.