Texas: Proposed new congressional districts highlight the weight of the Hispanic vote

Less than a decade ago, if someone talked about redistricting to concentrate the Hispanic vote, everyone understood it was a move by Democrats to consolidate their power. However, GOP legislators in Texas have bet all their chips on Latino community to get five new seats for the 2026 midterms.

This is a controversial example of the political shift that is being perceived in the second largest demographic group in the country and the fastest-growing in recent times. Hispanic voters, traditionally considered "captives" of the Democratic Party, were key to Donald Trump's overwhelming victory in the last election, and the GOP is confident of maintaining the trend.

Historic GOP results in Texas in 2024

In 2024, Trump won all four counties in the Rio Grande Valley, an area where eight years earlier he did not even reach 30% of the vote. In addition, in the past election, the president achieved victory in 14 of the 18 Texas counties located less than 20 miles from the border. In addition, there were milestones in The Lone Star State such as the first Republican victory in Starr County, where 98% of the population is Hispanic, in more than a century.

In three of the blue districts that conservatives hope to capture: the 9th congressional district east of Houston, the 35th district southeast of San Antonio and Hispanic Rep. Henry Cuellar’s 28th district in South Texas, mapmakers have drawn new boundaries to make each seat more favorable to the GOP, adding more Latino voters to the district.

Voters in these three districts are mostly Hispanic, as is the case with the seat held by Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen), whose South Texas seat is also in the conservative crosshairs.

Democrats hope Hispanic gamble turns against GOP

Despite Democrats' radical opposition to the new map, as evidenced by state lawmakers’ choice to flee the vote, Democratic strategists and lawmakers aren't quite convinced that the GOP's Hispanic gamble will work out well for them. First, because it won't be Trump at the top of the ballot, and, second, because of growing discontent among Latinos with the president's administration.

According to a national poll conducted in July by Equis Research, one-third of Hispanic voters who supported Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024 plan to vote again for a Democratic candidate, in this case for Congress, in 2026. Another third of these voters are still undecided.

Democratic Party returns to woo Hispanic voters

After the setback suffered in the Hispanic fiefdom, the Democrats are preparing a strategy of courting Latino voters for the midterm elections. To that end, they will focus on the economy, especially on how tariffs will worsen inflation and on the Republicans' remoteness from the day-to-day lives of workers, especially Latinos.

In Texas, however, the GOP has some points in its favor, such as the fact that a significant number of general consumer goods have dropped in price since Trump's arrival in the White House. But, above all, because many of the Hispanics in South Texas work in fracking companies, a sector in the crosshairs of the Democrats in their fight for green energy.

Henry Cuellar believes the new map could benefit him

One of those affected by the map change, Hispanic Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, noted in conversation with The New York Times that, despite his opposition to the actual fact that the maps are being redrawn for political interest, the redrawing could be beneficial for him, since it returns areas that had been under his jurisdiction prior to the 2021 changes back to his area.

"Of course we don't want redistricting to take place. But we will win if this is the race that is presented to us," noted the lawmaker, who will run against Republican Mayra Flores, also Hispanic.