Latinos were instrumental in getting Trump back into the White House: Here's how it happened

The Republican Party's advance among Latino voters was a determining factor in Donald Trump's return to the White House in 2024. According to an exit poll conducted by the National Election Pool (NEP), Donald Trump increased notably among Latino voters, 13 points over the 2020 election, especially among men.

A significant electoral shift

In 2020, Joe Biden out performed Trump among Latino voters nationally by a 33-point margin (65% vs. 32%). Four years later, exit polls indicate that Latino support for Trump increased to 45%. This shift, larger than in other racial and ethnic groups, reflected a significant shift in this community's voting behavior, especially among men.

The impact in key states

The swing in the Latino vote had a determining effect in states that switched from Biden to Trump. In Pennsylvania, for example, Latino support for Trump increased from 27% in 2020 to 42% in 2024. This increase contributed to reversing the lead Biden had gained in 2020.

In other key states such as Arizona and Georgia, where Latinos represent more than 20% and about 6% of the electorate, respectively, the Latino vote was also decisive. In Arizona, Latino support for Trump increased significantly, which contributed to his victory in that state. In Georgia, although the Latino population is smaller, their growing turnout and shift in preference toward the Republican Party influenced the electoral outcome.

Michigan and the growth of the Latino electorate

Michigan was another example of how the growth of the Latino electorate influenced the 2024 race. In 2020, Latinos represented approximately 3% of the electorate in the state and favored the Democratic candidate with 65% of the vote. By 2024, support for Kamala Harris dropped to 53%, reflecting a decline in Democratic support.

Mark Penn, president of the Harris Poll and chief executive officer of Stagwell Inc., along with Andrew Stein, former New York City Council speaker, stated in The Wall Street Journal that, without this shift in the Latino vote, Harris would have won with 293 electoral votes.

Future projections

The voting behavior of the Latino population not only impacted the battleground states, but also transformed the landscape in states such as Florida and Texas. In these regions, the Latino vote showed a growing trend toward the Republican Party, which could reduce the chances of a Democratic victory in these territories in the near future.