Reversal at the Polls: Trump Beats Harris Among Independents and Latinos

The most recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll reveals a notable increase in support for ex-president Donald Trump among independent and Latino voters, positioning him ahead of vice president Kamala Harris.

While Harris was leading Trump by 11 points among independents in August, the September results show a reversal of this trend, with Trump now leading Harris by three points, garnering 49% support to the vice president's 46%.

Latino voter support for Donald Trump also has shown a considerable shift. According to the data, the former president now has the backing of 51% of Latinos, surpassing Vice President Kamala Harris, who obtained only 47%. This change is especially significant compared to the August poll, where Harris led by 15 points.

Impact of the retirement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The fluctuation in electoral polling may be linked to several factors. One of the most prominent is the recent withdrawal of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from the race, who had captured 12% support in previous polls. His decision to endorse Trump is likely part of the surge of support for the former president. In addition, Kamala Harris' initial momentum following her nomination, known as the "honeymoon" effect, appears to have lost steam and begun to plateau, which could also explain the changes in the electoral trend.

Trump narrows the gap in a national showdown

In the most recent poll of registered voters in the multi-candidate race, Kamala Harris has a slight lead over Donald Trump, garnering 49% support to Trump's 48%, showing a minimal difference of one percentage point. Compared to the August poll, Harris' lead was wider, at 48% to Trump's 45%, showing that Trump has narrowed the gap between the two candidates since that earlier poll.

Performance on key issues

On issues such as immigration, economics and the situation in the Middle East, Trump gets more support than Harris, with 53%, 52% and 51% support, respectively. However, Harris leads on the abortion issue, where she has 56% support.

The debate in Philadelphia will be a key moment for both candidates to strengthen their voter base and convince the undecided. Nationally, Harris has a slight 1.1 percentage point lead, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, although Trump shows a strong showing in swing states.