The latest Rasmussen poll gives Trump a three-point lead over Harris

The latest Rasmussen poll finds that 49% of Likely U.S. voters would vote for Donald Trump, while 46% would vote for Kamala Harris. Two percent say they would vote for some other candidate and another two percent are undecided.

With this data, Trump beats Harris by three points, but those undecided could be crucial in the upcoming election, where everything points to close numbers for both candidates. Should more options be added to his poll, Rasmussen's data gives 47% to Trump and 45% to Harris, while independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gets 4%.

This information comes at a time of great uncertainty for the Kennedy campaign, which is expected to join Donald Trump's cause and support him, although nothing is set in stone. If so, a good number of voters who support Kennedy could go for Trump in November.

Turbulence in prediction markets

Meanwhile, the numbers are shaky in prediction markets such as Polymarket. Here, two events made big swings in the polls: the assassination attempt on Donald Trump in Butler on July 13 and the confirmation of Kamala Harris as the Democratic choice for the White House.

After the attack, Trump got his best rating in the prediction markets, while that of the Democrats fell abysmally due to continued doubts cast on Joe Biden. The moment Harris stepped forward, the gap narrowed.

Over the course of the previous week, both candidates managed to outpace each other for several days. The latest data makes Trump the winner with 51%. Still at Polymarket, the data by each swing state also indicates Trump as the victor in all but two, Wisconsin and Michigan. In Pennsylvania, Polymarket's ratios predict a victory for Trump with 52%.