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Biden in serious trouble: Trump is tying in a state that has voted for Democratic candidates since 2008

Virginia could enter the list of “swing states” for the November elections according to various recent polls.

Biden en serios apuros: Trump está empatando en Virginia, un estado que vota candidatos demócratas desde 2008

Montaje de fotos de Joe Biden y Donald Trump. (AFP)

President Joe Biden is in serious trouble, as according to various national polls, former President Donald Trump is currently technically tied with him in Virginia, a state that has voted for Democratic presidential candidates since the 2008 election.

The last Republican to win in Virginia was former President George W. Bush, in 2004. Former President Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012, Hillary Clinton defeated Trump in 2016 and Biden did the same in the last election.

According to a recent poll conducted between June 1 and 4 by Fox News, Biden and Trump are tied in a hypothetical direct confrontation in the Old Dominion State with 48% support for each.

When independent candidates were added to the poll question, Biden pulled out a slight lead over Trump by one percentage point: 42% to 41%. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 9% support, apparently affecting Trump's performance a little more.

By breaking down the numbers, Biden continues to have strong support from Black voters (73%), suburban women (58%), and college-educated voters (56%). However, the Democrat has a problem: his lead among black voters has narrowed considerably from his performance in 2020, when he took an 81-point lead in this demographic group. Now their lead is 48 points.

In contrast, former President Trump has the support of white evangelical Christians (80%), rural voters (63%), voters without a college degree (56%), and white voters (54%). His performance among black voters rose from 9% in 2020 to 25% today. That is, support tripled, according to the study.

Meanwhile, Fox News reported that independent voters are also divided (45% Biden, 43% Trump).

Electoral experts agree that, if Biden wants re-election , Virginia is a state that he must maintain. In fact, the current president won in 2020 by almost ten points over Trump, when he obtained almost 55% of the votes.

“Virginia is a must win state for Biden, so a tight race here is going to require some serious defense from his campaign to hold it,” said Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who co-led the Fox News poll with Republican Daron Shaw. “But that appears possible, in that compared to elsewhere, Virginia voters are a little more positive about the economy and give Trump less of an advantage on the issues.”

However, the aforementioned poll is not the only one that shows Virginia competitive for Trump.

An article in The Hill published at the beginning of the month showed that the vast majority of national polls keep Biden and Trump in a technical tie, with a moderate advantage in favor of the Democratic president that does not exceed two points on average.

For example, a Roanoke College poll released earlier this month found that Biden and Trump each have 42% support in Virginia.

Likewise, in a larger representation, the Decision Desk HQ polling average shows that Biden leads Trump by just one percentage point : 44.1% to 43.1%.

Commenting on that performance, Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, commented: “Biden is certainly not doing as well as he did in 2020, when he won Virginia by 10 percent. But he’s probably ahead by a few points at this time.”

However, Sabato warned that “If Virginia is even competitive in the fall, it’s a very bad sign for Biden since Virginia is more Democratic than many of the true swing states.”

Biden's poor performance in Virginia comes after a guilty verdict in Manhattan against Trump is pushing many undecided voters toward the Republican side, according to various national reports.