Trump tests his clout in Ohio in a tightly contested Republican Senate primary

Donald Trump will test his electoral heft in Ohio through a tight Republican Senate primary. Although the former president prevailed in the Buckeye State in both 2016 and 2020, and helped JD Vance reach the upper chamber in 2022, his candidate is experiencing some difficulties in the final stretch of the campaign, so Trump traveled straight to the state to give him one last push to help him cross the finish line.

Ohio is one of the most tempting seats for the GOP heading into the 2024 electoral map, where Republicans could flip as many as seven seats and regain the majority lost in 2020. Along with Montana and West Virginia, the Buckeye State is the third Democratic-held state where the former president won in both 2016 and 2020.

However, to carry out this mission, they will have to choose a candidate next Tuesday, November 19, and that name will come out of Frank LaRose, Matt Dolan and Bernie Moreno.

Dolan or Moreno, one of the two will try to unseat Sherrod Brown in November

Although the race initially remained a three-way fight, it will be the latter two who will fight for the Republican nomination. Although LaRose happens to be the state's attorney general, the financial capacity of his opponents meant he could not keep up with the pace of the campaign. While Dolan, a career politician and millionaire state senator, bases his candidacy on his conservative record, Moreno emphasizes his 'outsider' quality and has the backing of Trump, as well as a good part of his potential colleagues.

The face-off between the two began to turn ugly in recent weeks, as excessive negative publicity and personal cross attacks began to appear.

"It’s pretty ugly. Unfortunately, we’re at a phase where there’s a lot of negative advertising. I think, obviously, that will eventually harm the nominee. The more negative dollars you spend attacking each other, the more it makes it harder. We’ve certainly learned that the hard way," Vance said in a recent interview.

"Whoever comes out of this is still gonna have to turn around and run against one of the better campaigners Ohio’s ever seen in Sherrod Brown," said Congressman David Joyce, who also had some advice for both candidates. "Get their message out to the people on what they’re going to do on behalf of Ohio, and not necessarily why the other guy’s a bad guy," he added.

"A test of the former president's influence in the state"

That's how POLITICO defined this primary, which will test the weight of Donald Trump's endorsement in Ohio. After a few months of indecision, the former president opted for Moreno at the end of December 2023. "It's time for the entire Republican Party to UNITE around Bernie's Senate campaign so we can have a BIG win in what will be the most important Election in American History," the president wrote on his Truth Social account, where he also added that Moreno is "exactly the MAGA fighter we need in the U.S. Senate."

Trump endorsed Vance in the 2022 election and succeeded in boosting him in what was also a close primary. When all the votes were counted, he had garnered 32% of the vote, ahead of Josh Mandel's 23% and also Dolan's 23%.

However, this election appears to be more uphill for Trump's candidate, who battles head to head with the state senator.

Dolan, who this time opted not to go against Trump, but to go with his ideas, bases his campaign on his legislative record and gained ground in recent weeks thanks to the reach of his radio ads, a space where he outspent Moreno by a wide margin.

"As a State Senator and Chairman of the powerful Senate Finance Committee, Matt Dolan has solidified his standing as a conservative leader by keeping his promises to reduce the size and scope of government, protect Ohio communities, and deliver record-breaking tax cuts to Ohio families and businesses. Matt’s most recent budget earned wide praise from state and national conservative organizations, including the Ohio Republican Party which labeled his effort 'the most conservative budget in Ohio legislative history,'" reads his website.

In the final days of campaigning he was able to win the endorsement of Governor Mike DeWine and former Ohio Senator Rob Portman.

Moreno, son of Colombian immigrants, embraces Trump's ideals more strongly and presents himself as an 'outsider' businessman who seeks to change DC.

"I am running for the United States Senate because, for too long, the men and women who move Ohio forward, American workers, have been left behind by career politicians like Sherrod Brown and Joe Biden," he explains on his campaign website.

What do the polls say?

The race could be divided into three moments: an initial one where LaRose led, an intermediate one where Moreno achieved a comfortable lead, and this last one, where Dolan now battles head to head with Trump's candidate.

Indeed, the last two polls show the state senator taking the nomination by a razor-thin margin. According to Ecu Poll, Dolan would lead the Republican preferences with 33% of the vote, followed by Moreno's 31% and LaRose's 23%.

Similar is the scenario posed by Mainstreet Research, whose results also found Dolan as the winner, this time with 31% of the votes versus 29% for Moreno and 19% for LaRose.

With intentions of toppling Dolan's rise, Trump landed in Ohio to campaign alongside Moreno, whom he described as a hero.

He also took the opportunity to attack the state senator, calling him "a weak RINO" who is "trying to become the next Mitt Romney."

In turn, he went after the entire Dolan family for changing the name of the baseball team they own, Cleveland Indians, to Cleveland Guardians. In his eyes, they are "easily intimidated by woke leftist lunatics."

NRSC remained neutral in Ohio

Steve Daines (R-MT), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), is charged with leading Republicans to a majority in the upper chamber. Unlike his predecessor, Rick Scott (R-FL), who decided not to get involved in the primary process, the Montana senator is playing hardball to pick candidates in key states, with the goal of advancing those most likely to win a general election.

Indeed, he has already endorsed names in Montana, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, West Virginia and Nevada, but has decided to stay out of Ohio. His reasons? He understands that any of the three candidates could defeat Brown in a general election.