Midterms: variations in key states that could determine Senate majority

In today’s midterm elections, major polls in some races show a dramatic turnaround. FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a 59% chance of controlling the Senate, compared to a 41% chance for Democrats.

RealClearPolitics (RCP) also predicts the GOP will win a majority with 53 seats compared to the Democratic Party's 47. This new data is, in part, the result of ten races in states where the party or voters' favorite candidate isn’t so clear, so the polls have been going back and forth on the possible winners.

Pennsylvania

The Keystone State, because it is mostly Democratic, should not be part of the election races that have not yet been decided. However, it presents one of the closest possible outcomes.

Mehmet Oz (R) and John Fetterman (D) are in a dispute caused in large part by the controversies involving Fetterman, who suffered a stroke earlier this year. This has raised doubts about his health and his ability to serve as a senator.

- RCP predicts the Republican will win (47.2%) against the Democrat (46.8%), a narrow margin of 0.4 points. The tables have turned compared to last week, when 538 indicated that the Democrat was in the lead by 8.9 points, while RCP put him in a 4-point lead.

Colorado

The state’s loyal Democrats show a slight change of trend that could be decisive in this election. Although Michael Bennet (D), who has been a senator for 12 years, continues to lead in the polls, he maintains a narrow lead over Republican challenger Joe O'Dea, a Republican who has a moderate political stance, making him an attractive candidate to the state's voters.

- Considering the state's voters, with only a 5.3 point difference, the Democrat has a 50% chance of winning his election and governing for six more years, compared to 44.3% for his Republican opponent. Last week, Bennet's margin of victory was higher, with an 8-point difference in his favor.

New Hampshire

New Hampshire, with a Democratic majority, has a Republican governor, Chris Sununu, thanks to the great work of his party that managed to bring him to power. The race for senator is very close. Democrat Maggie Hassan versus Don Bolduc (R), who is supported by Donald Trump. The possibly close results seem to show that voters are not completely on board with Democrats in this election.

- RCP shows a 1-point difference giving Hassan (D) a 48.7% chance of victory compared to Don Bolduc’s (R) 47.3%. This result is very different from last week's figures. 538 shows the Democratic candidate leading by 7.3 points, and RCP shows a lead of 8 points.

Arizona

Blake Masters (R), a Donald Trump-backed candidate has used Biden's unpopularity as a strategy to wear down his opponent Mark Kelly (D). The very conservative Republican is in favor of a law that would ban abortion after the 15th week of pregnancy, proposed by Senator Lindsey Graham.

- Masters, with less than a one-point lead (48.3%) narrows the gap from Kelly for the Senate seat (48%). This data contradicts last week's, where 538 predicted the Democrat to pull 7.5 points ahead of the Republican, and RCP downgraded the Democrat's lead to 6.0.

Georgia

Georgia's voters usually favor a Republican-majority. However, a close result is expected in this election. Democrat Raphael Warnock, with very progressive ideas, is fighting to keep the senate seat he already holds. He is facing Herschel Walker (R) who has damaged his candidacy with some campaign failures.

Walker has the lead by a little over a point (48.8%) over Warnock (47.4%). Last week, RCP last week gave the Republican a lead of just 0.3 points in the poll, while 538 raised it to 2 points.

Nevada

In Nevada, two completely opposite candidates are running, a very left-leaning Democrat and a very conservative Republican. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) is seeking re-election by embracing abortion as her campaign banner. Her opponent Adam Laxat is a Republican trying to win the working class vote by insisting on the need to control inflation.

- The Republican is currently 3.4 points ahead (48.8%) of the Democrat's (45.4%). Both Inside Elections and Cook indicated the race would be tight last week. RCP put Laxat in a small lead (1.7 points), and 538 put Cortez Masto in a slight 0.7-point lead.

Wisconsin

In a state without a clear majority, Ron Johnson (R) is seeking to be re-elected to his Senate seat. His opponent Mandela Barnes (D), the current lieutenant governor, is following in his footsteps in the race.

- Johnson, with a 3.6 point lead, (50.2%) has a majority over Barnes (46.6%). Last week Inside Elections similarly noted that Johnson had a slight lead, but according to the polling average, this margin has now increased. RCP put Johnson in a 1.5 point lead.

Florida

Florida has a majority of registered Republican voters clearly outnumbering Democrats. Ron DeSantis is all but assured he will be re-elected as governor. In the Senate’s case, Marco Rubio (R) who has the support of the Sunshine State's Hispanic residents, is facing Democrat Val Demings.

- Rubio is 8.8 points ahead (52.4%) of Demings (43.6%). The data is a resounding change from last week, when Inside Elections predicted a win for Rubio, though not a definite one. RCP only gave him a 2.8-point lead, while 538 raised it to 3.8.

North Carolina

Ted Budd (R) a gun store owner, is a conservative candidate, which should not be a problem in North Carolina. His rival Cheri Beasley (D) is running as a candidate who is a supporter of abortion rights, but otherwise presents herself as a moderate independent of her party.

- Budd would take the majority of the vote with a 51% chance while his rival Beasley is at 44.8%. With a 6.2 point lead, the GOP would retain control of the Senate in this state. Last week RCP put the Republican in the lead with a much narrower margin of only two points, higher than 538’s 0.3-point lead.

Ohio

Republican candidate J.D. Vance faces "moderate" Democrat Tim Ryan, who has embraced a message that may not displease some modern-day Republicans. One of the major measures of his campaign is that he wants to get Ohio to regain the industrial jobs it has lost in recent decades.

- Vance has an 8-point lead (51.8%) over Ryan (43.8%). Inside Elections predicted a Republican victory last week, but the polls did not give Vance a large lead, like the current one. 538 put him in a 0.2-point lead while RCP put him ahead by 1.2 points.