One month before midterms, Democratic Party continues to lose Hispanic support

Hispanic voters continue to drift away from the Democratic Party. In contrast, the number of members of this community betting on the Republican Party has grown noticeably compared to the 2018 midterms. Concerns about inflation and the negative perception of the Biden Administration's management are the main reasons for this change in trend.

According to the poll conducted by The Washington Post/Ipsos the Democratic Party continues to garner the majority of the Hispanic vote, with 63%, down nine points from 72% in 2018. For its part, the Republican Party receives the confidence of 36% of Hispanics, up 11% from 25% in the previous midterms. The figures are, however, similar to those of the 2020 presidential election.

Biden's management, a burden

The work of President Joe Biden is precisely one of the causes of Hispanic disaffection with the party to which they have always traditionally been linked. Although 53% approve of the administration's performance during these two years, 46% are dissatisfied. Worse is the perception of what the president has accomplished during his tenure: 57% believe he has "accomplished not much" or "almost nothing" since coming to the White House.

The Republican Party offers greater confidence to Hispanics on the issue that concerns them most: skyrocketing prices. Thirty-three percent believe that Republican prescriptions would be more appropriate to correct the situation, compared to 30% who believe in Democratic measures, such as the Biden Administration's ambitious anti-inflation plan. However, 36% of this community does not trust either party.

Inflation and crime, better with the Republican Party

The Republican Party also prevails in the fight against crime. In this case, the margin is even smaller, barely 1%. Thirty-three percent believe that Republican initiatives are best suited to fight this problem - third on the list of Hispanics - compared to 32% who support Democratic actions. However, the majority of respondents (36%) are indifferent between the two.

Democratic candidates prevail mainly on climate change programs (57% vs. 12% Republican, with 30% backing neither), LGTBI issues (53-15 and 28% preferring neither) and abortion (53-25).

Abortion, a Democratic hope?

Precisely on this last issue, the Democrats believe they have found a vein of opportunity to recover lost ground. Until now, the profile of the anti-abortion Hispanic Catholic had been taken for granted, something that Democratic candidates are beginning to question. This is the case of the vote for the seat in the second district of New Mexico, in California, which has the highest percentage of Hispanics (47.7%) in the country.

Speaking to the Los Angeles Times, Gary Segura, dean of the UCLA School of Public Affairs and a specialist in Hispanic voting, said, "These incorrect assumptions have been around for a long time, and have been wrong for a long time. So much so that the Supreme Court's ruling has radically changed the voting map and the way both parties seek the vote. So much so that some believe that without it, "the Democrats, probably, would be in big, big trouble."

Even Republican Party strategists, such as Mike Madrid, have acknowledged this. For Madrid, the reaction among Hispanic women to the Dobbs ruling has been especially pronounced, especially among those born in the United States. In fact, according to TargetSmart, a Democratic analysis group, Hispanics participated massively in the Kansas abortion referendum. Sixty-two percent of the participants in this community were women.