More than 40% of Americans believe a new civil war is possible in the next decade

Two out of five Americans believe that a civil war is somewhat likely in the country in the next decade. Data from a survey conducted by The Economist and YouGov revealed that the majority of citizens (66%) believe that divisions have worsened since the beginning of 2021 and 62% believe that clashes will increase in the coming years.

Only 8% said that the country is less divided and very few (7%) believe that things will improve in the coming years.

The survey noted that Republicans are more likely than Democrats to perceive this divide. Nearly 80% of Republicans said the country is more politically divided than it was a year ago versus 59% of Democrats. Similarly, they are more likely than Democrats to think this divide will increase in the coming years (72% vs. 58%).

Political violence and civil war

In this regard, three out of five Americans (60%) consider that there will be an increase in political violence in the coming years while only 9% expect political violence to decrease.

When asked "what is the likelihood that political violence will culminate in a civil war in the United States?"43% of respondents said it is a likely scenario in the next decade. Of these, 14% said "very likely.” About one in three (35%) said it is not very likely and 22% said they were not sure. Those who describe themselves as "strongly Republican" make up the group of respondents who lean more towards the civil war option (54%).

The YouGov survey was conducted from August 20-23, 2022 among 1,500 adult U.S. citizens.