Paul Felix Lazarsfeld was an Austrian-American sociologist who devoted much of his career to studying the presidential election in the United States. According to his findings, those who define the outcome of an election are the "undecided", understood as the group of voters who make their decision in the last weeks of the campaign. Within these of course live unlikely voters, those who were not even sure they were going to vote until shortly before going to the polls. Precisely, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden among the latter.
This was found by a survey conducted by Suffolk University/USA Today to 900 citizens by telephone. Among those selected, 66% said they were not likely to vote, 20% indicated it was "unlikely" and the remaining 14% said they were still "undecided."
They were divided by regions, by political spectrum and by age, which resulted in a representative group of much of the nation.
When asked who they would vote for, or who they would be most inclined to vote for, 32% chose Trump's name, while 13% preferred Biden. In addition, 33% said they would opt for other candidates if given the chance.
As for the popularity of the two favorites to keep the nominations of their respective parties, Trump again took the lead. 27% of respondents viewed the former president favorably, while only 23% approved of President Biden. The situation was repeated when they measured the degree of rejection of both candidates. 52% had an unfavorable opinion of Biden, which contrasts with 49% who disfavored Trump according to the polls.
Finally, respondents were asked who would likely make them leave their homes to vote in November 2024. In this area, 8% leaned towards Trump, while 1.5% for Biden.