The entry of Robert Kennedy Jr. in the 2024 presidential elections shook the electoral scene. Since his announcement, political analysts have been trying to predict whether his presence benefits Donald Trump or Joe Biden more in the face of a three-way battle. Morning Consult set out to resolve this question with a survey in critical states and its findings favored Trump as the next Republican nominee.
The pollster interviewed likely voters in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, first in a traditional scenario, Republican vs. Democrat, and later with multiple additions.
In the first scenario, Trump would defeat Biden in every state except Michigan, where they would be tied at 43%. In 2020, Biden beat his predecessor in all states except North Carolina, so this new finding would return Trump to the White House.
Trump leads Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — with or without independent names in the mix.
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— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) November 13, 2023
With Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornell West in the equation, Trump would win again in all states except Michigan. Robert Kennedy Jr.'s best performance would be in Wisconsin, where he would obtain 13% of the votes.
"Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in six of the seven swing states we surveyed this month, and adding third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West to the ballot does not change that," Morning Consult explained.
"Although the Trump campaign has already attempted to undermine Kennedy's independent candidacy, Kennedy remains more beloved among Republicans than Democrats. This gives the Biden campaign a potential opportunity to turn Kennedy's candidacy against Trump, emphasizing in his marginal views that are popular in some sectors of the right," they added.
However, even taking into account Kennedy, the presence of two other more left-wing candidates could complicate things for Biden in these states, which are expected to be defined by few votes. Many analysts blamed Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate in 2016, for being responsible for Hillary Clinton's defeat, as she took small but decisive margins in states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
