Earlier in the week, a Quinnipiac University poll showed President Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump in the presidential race thanks to independents. It was an omen that the Democratic leader's campaign could be regaining strength amid criticism and various challenges at the national level, however, just days later, Biden received a tough blow: a new NBC News study projects Biden not only below Trump by five points, but also gives the president his worst approval rating in the network's polling history.
According to NBC News, registered voters think Biden is less fit for office than Trump and that the former president is more capable of handling the economy, safety and immigration by a wide margin.
Respondents also believe that Trump is much more capable in terms of his physical and mental abilities than his Democratic opponent.
According to NBC News, the data shows that in a potential face-off, Trump leads Biden 47% to 42%, a result that is within the margin of error, however, it is the largest gap between Trump and Biden in NBC News polling history, where the Democrat has almost always been widely favored.
Since 2019, NBC News has no conducted 16 polls testing a Biden/Trump match-up.
In the ‘20 cycle, Biden led all 12 of them, by margins between 6 and 14 points. This cycle, we’ve conducted 4, with Trump ahead in two of them and tied in another: pic.twitter.com/pBJuQWxrkx
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) February 4, 2024
Likewise, Biden also achieved his worst approval rating (37%) in the history of the NBC News poll, which, in turn, is the worst for a sitting president in an election year since the network began keeping this data in George W. Bush's second term.
In 2020, for example, Trump had 46% approval, nine points higher than Biden's current rating.
On key issues such as the economy, despite the Biden administration boasting post-pandemic macroeconomic improvement, voters have a better memory of former President Trump's economic management.
The former president, in fact, has a 22-point lead over Biden among respondents who said he would do a better job on the economy: 55% to 33%.
On immigration and the border, voters also believe that Trump would do a better job than Biden, the latter practically at the forefront of an unprecedented border crisis since he came to the White House. The advantage in the poll is 35 points: 57% for Trump to 22% for Biden.
Regarding the handling of crime and violence, the difference is 21 points in favor of Trump, 50 to 29%.
Likewise, in terms of being "competent and effective," Trump has a lead of 16 points and an 11-point advantage in "improving the United States' position in the world."
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff and his team at Public Opinion Strategies, said the numbers show Biden's presidency is “in peril.”
“What is most concerning is the erosion of Biden’s standing against Trump compared to four years ago,” Horwitt said. “On every measure compared to 2020, Biden has declined. Most damning, the belief that Biden is more likely to be up to the job — the chief tenet of the Biden candidacy — has evaporated.”
Other data that is concerning for Biden is his poor rating among young voters under 35 years of age. For example, regarding his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas, only 15% of this group approve of Biden's management, while a whopping 70% disapprove.
Hispanics, a decisive electoral group in the upcoming election, are also a problem for Biden. Only 35% approve of his job and, according to the survey, Trump leads Biden among Hispanics by one percentage point: 42% to 41%.
Biden, on the other hand, leads Trump among black voters (75% to 16%), women (50% to 40%) and college-educated white voters (50% to 42%).
Trump, however, wins the independent vote according to NBC News: 48% to 29%. He also largely dominates among men (56% to 34%) and white voters without a college degree (62% to 29%).
Even so, Horwitt stressed that Biden has a lot of time to try to turn the situation around, although it will be an uphill battle.
Perhaps the only positive indicator for the Democrat is that, in the same survey, respondents were asked who they would vote for if Trump is convicted of a crime before the election. In that hypothetical scenario, Biden would defeat Trump by a narrow margin of 45% to 43%.
In a vote between all remaining candidates, Trump also has the advantage over Biden by six points (41% to 35%), with the rest of the candidates taking between 10 and 15% of the votes.
