Tomorrow, Argentina will elect a new president. Citizens will head to the polls to choose between Javier Milei, a libertarian economist, and Sergio Massa, the current Minister of Economy. After many attacks between the candidates, the campaign came to an end on Friday the 16th, given that Argentine legislation establishes an "electoral ban" and a prohibition on disseminating polls up to 10 days before the elections. Amid the uncertainty, this is what the latest available polls say.
Massa, who has a poverty rate of 42% and annual inflation of more than 100%, is the face of the ruling party in elections that pit him against Milei, a libertarian outsider who has managed to become the main opposition in just two years. The Peronist Massa campaigned based on the famous "Plan platita," which consisted of increased public spending to fill the middle and lower class's pockets and the "campaign of fear" against his opponent. The latter consists of making voters see the economist as a "leap into the void" for the country, which will mark the "end of education and public health."
On the other hand, Milei insists that "a different Argentina is impossible with the same old people" and tries to set the course for economic freedom and commercial openness. In his last campaign announcement, he asked Argentines to "don't let yourself be scared" so that "hope conquers fear."
What do the latest polls say?
Atlas Intel, the pollster closest to the results in the October general elections, predicts that Milei will be the next president of Argentina. The 48.6% of the libertarian candidate would exceed the 44.6% of the Peronist. This poll was carried out between November 3 and 11.
Counting only the valid votes, that is, not including the blank or null ballots, the economist's victory would be 52.1% against the 47.9% of the former mayor of Tigre.
A different scenario was predicted by the Latin American Strategic Center for Geopolitics (Celag), which had Massa come in first. They carried out the questionnaire between November 25 and 8 with a sample of 2,005 people who leaned towards the Peronist with 46.7%, just above Milei's 45.3%.
Celag is joined by Circuitos, whose results, with many undecided voters, showed a victory for Massa with 44.2% of the votes, against 42.1% for the libertarian. In turn, they encountered 13.7% of people who did not choose either candidate.
CB Consultura added another poll to Milei's column, even daring to predict a wider margin of victory. According to their numbers, the libertarian would reach 50.1% of the votes, compared to 45.3% for the ruling party's candidate.
Jorge Giacobbe, a popular local political analyst, was even more generous with his numbers. Removing the undecided votes, Milei would take the presidency with 53.1% of the votes, seven points above Massa's 46.9%.
