China and its dizzying naval expansion: A global challenge

In just four years, China has achieved a shipbuilding feat that has put the world's major military powers on alert. According to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), cited by The Telegraph, Chinese shipyards have built the equivalent of the entire British Royal Navy fleet between 2019 and 2023. This rapid expansion cements Beijing as a dominant force at sea and raises concerns among Washington and its allies.

According to the report, four major Chinese shipyards (Dalian, Guangzhou, Jiangnan and Hudong-Zhonghua) manufactured at least 39 warships with a total displacement of approximately 550,000 tons. In comparison, the British Royal Navy currently owns 19 surface ships and 10 submarines, totaling a displacement of 440,000 tons.

Chinese industrial capacity is not limited to the military. During the same period, these shipyards also produced 19 million tons of commercial ships, highlighting the interconnection between civilian and military industry in the country. CSIS warns that 75% of the ships built at these facilities were financed by foreign companies, meaning that a significant portion of the revenue that sustains China's naval expansion comes from international trade.

A latent threat in the Pacific

The rapid modernization of the People's Liberation Army Navy has already positioned China as the largest naval force in number of ships, surpassing even the U.S. Navy. In 2022, the Chinese fleet had 351 combat ships, compared with 294 in the U.S. Projections point to China having 425 operational ships by 2030, while the U.S. fleet is forecast to reach 300.

While the U.S. Navy still maintains an advantage in technology and offensive capability, with a superiority in destroyers and guided missile cruisers, the speed of replenishment of Chinese ships poses a strategic challenge. In an eventual protracted conflict, China's ability to replace its ships quickly could tip the balance in its favor.

A dual-use industry and its global impact

The China State Shipbuilding Corporation is the epicenter of this transformation. With 35 shipyards in operation, 12 of them specializing in the dual production of military and commercial vessels, the state-owned company accounts for 40% of the naval tonnage built in China between 2019 and 2024. What is alarming, according to CSIS, is that three-quarters of its sales come from foreign customers, which indirectly strengthens China's naval capacity.

Against this backdrop, Washington has begun to analyze measures to counter the growth of China's shipbuilding industry. Among the proposed strategies are increased berthing fees for ships built in dual-use shipyards, financial sanctions against China's State Shipbuilding Corporation, and increased government support for U.S. and allied shipyards.

Currently, the U.S. accounts for just 0.1% of world ship production, in contrast to China's 53%. Japan and South Korea, with 13% and 29% respectively, are also looking to bolster their industries to balance the scales. Reviving U.S. shipbuilding has been a promise of President Donald Trump, who recently declared his intention to resuscitate the sector.

Geopolitical implications

The Chinese advance at sea has direct implications for the stability of the Indo-Pacific. Taiwan, a territory claimed by Beijing, is at the center of this dispute. China's growing naval capabilities could alter its leaders' perception of risk, raising the possibility of military action.

As China expands its maritime influence, the U.S. government and its allies face the difficult task of containing this advance without triggering direct conflict. What is clear is that Beijing's dominance in shipbuilding has changed the rules of the game and could redefine the balance of power in the coming years.